Category Archives: Interesting

About That Census Data

You know how we read articles about the results of studies and carrying headlines like "In 2020 Number of Octogenarian Turtle Farmers Will Outnumber Septuagenarian Muskrat Herders."  Many of those studies use data sub-sets of the US Census that are made publicly available by the US Census Bureau for exactly that purpose.  The problem is that those data sub-sets have some glaring errors:. 

The errors are documented in a stunningly straightforward manner. The authors compare the official census count (based on the tallying up of all Census forms) with their own calculations, based on the sub-sample released for researchers (the “public use micro sample,” available through IPUMS). If all is well, then the authors’ estimates should be very close to 100% of the official population count. But they aren’t...

These microdata have been used in literally thousands of studies and countless policy discussions. While the findings of many of these studies aren’t much affected by these problems, in some cases, important errors have been introduced. The biggest problems probably exist for research focusing on seniors. Yes, this means that many of those studies of important policy issues—retirement, social security, elder care, disability, and medicare—will need to be revisited.

It's kind of hard to make good policy decisions if they're based on inaccurate information.  Still, no one is disputing the accuracy of the census itself which is important to remember as we gear up for the 2010 count.  Hopefully The Census Bureau will be diligent in making sure that the data sub-sets that are generated from the new count are far more accurate than the 2000 versions.  

Kids, Forget Mowing or Shoveling

Mark Cuban has some great advice for anyone looking to make a little cash:

And finally, if i was just out of school and fluent in all things Wi Fi , networking and wireless, I would immediately go door to door offering to fine tune your home’s wireless network.  With new HDTVs coming out with Wi FI, the IPad, SlingBox, Netflix Streaming and other applications consuming tons of bandwidth in the home, it is an ABSOLUTE certainty that 99pct of home networks can be improved and perform significantly better.  Be that kid in your neighborhood that comes in and fine tunes everyone’s wi fi in their home for 50 or 100 bucks (or more if you live in a fancy part of town) and you will make some good money.

Beats mowing, that's for sure.



All Lives Have Equal Value

You can read Bill Gates' 2010 Annual Letter for the Bil & Melinda Gates Foundation here.  It's broken into 12 sections which you will find below.  Personally I really like the line at the top of every page: "All Lives Have Equal Value"

Not All Yurts Are Created Equal

Last summer our family spent a long weekend staying in a yurt near Charlottesville, VA.  Our yurt was luxurious and featured a nice kitchen, a nice bathroom, air conditioning, and HD television.  Although it looked very much like the yurt occupied by the family featured in this NY Times story the similarities ended there.  These folks have no running water and thus no indoor plumbing, their heat is provided by a wood burning stove and they fashioned a root cellar out of an old refrigerator. They're not totally roughing it though: they have broadband.

10 to 15 Inches and Maybe a White Christmas?

AMR emailed to let me know about a cool weather blog he's found that called for a significant weather storm here well before the local weather experts did.  In reading his most recent update about tomorrow's projected storm I was stunned to find this:

A major winter storm is about to slam Virginia and North Carolina as a
s/w trough diving down the front range partially or potentially fully
phases with a an area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and
produced a rather potent storm which will move just of the southeast
coast tomorrow and Saturday. It is still unclear as to how much phasing
will occur and exactly who gets the snow. The idea I am working on is
that much of Virginia and western and northern North Carolina see a big
snow, perhaps 10-15 inches in parts of those states.

A little later in the post he writes this:

Beyond this Christmas week looks cold for most of us and like I have
been saying all week the Christmas storm is a threat for the southern
and eastern US. I didn’t like the lakes cutter idea and still don’t
thanks to the massive block over eastern Canada. I still think we could
see a disruptive winter storm Christmas Eve and Christmas Day
potentially for the southern and eastern US.

A white Christmas…in NC?  Methinks hell hath frozen over.

Why Progressives are Bat—t Crazy

Via Ed Cone comes this interesting piece with an even more interesting graphic about the Senate's health care reform proposal. The graphic compares the projected annual costs of health care (defined as premiums and cost sharing) to a family of four making $54,000 a year in 2016 under three different scenarios: If the Senate Bill is passed, the Status Quo (nothing changes from today's system), Status Quo + SCHIP (the cost of insurance under the status quo if you qualify for SCHIP subsidies).  Basically the annual out of pocket expense for the family under the Senate Bill would be $9,000 while under the status quo it would be over $19,500. The difference is due to a $10,000 subsidy the author identifies in the Senate bill.  He also says that progressives, who generally don't have a problem with "big government," should be all over this thing instead of railing against it.  Here's an excerpt from his breakdown of the "Status Quo" figures:

In 2009, the average premium for a family in the individual market was $6,328, according to the insurance lobbying group AHIP.
However, this figure paints an optimistic picture for two reasons.
Firstly, the average family size in the AHIP dataset is 3.03 people;
for a family of four, that number would scale upward to $7,925, by my
calculations. Secondly, the CBO's estimates are based on 2016 figures,
not 2009, so to make an apples-to-apples comparison, we have to account
for inflation. According to Kaiser, the average cost of health coverage
has increased by about 8.7 percent annually
over the past decade, and by 8.8 percent for family coverage. Let's
scale that down slightly, assuming 7.5 annual inflation in premiums
from 2009 through 2016 inclusive. That would bring the cost of the
family's premium up by a nominal 66 percent, to $13,149. And remember:
these are based on estimates of premiums provided by the insurance lobby. I have no particular reason to think that they're biased, but if they are, it's probably on the low side.

I'm glad to see someone finally putting some digestible figures out there.  While the figures might just be estimates the author at least puts the argument in the proper context.  As someone who has an average healthy family of five (two adults, three children) and who has been in the individual insurance market for years I can tell you that the $19,500 estimate is definitely in the ballpark since we've been dancing in the $12,000-$14,000 a year territory for quite a while.

Out of curiosity I decided to see how this health expense compares to a yearly mortgage expense.  I went to an online mortgage calculator and put in $150,000 for a 30 year loan at 7% interest.  The monthly mortgage payment would be $997.50 which my middle-school level math tells me is a little under $12,000 a year. So the projected "status quo" premium of $13,149 in 2016 is over a $1,000 than the annual mortgage expense on a $150,000 note.  That's truly insane. 

Oh, and the more the insurance is the higher the monthly expense the insured has to report on his loan application and that lowers the amount that he'll qualify for.  That means he and the other average folks like him buy less house, which means the developers have to build smaller/cheaper houses, which means the developer's suppliers sell him less stuff, which means they employ fewer people, and so on.  All so average people can pay out the nose for a piece of paper which tells them that they might not be bankrupted by a horrible illness as long as it wasn't some sort of preexisting condition or didn't happen during a full moon.  That's not just insane, that's bat—t crazy.

21st Century Bell Ringers

Some Salvation Army kettles in Raleigh can take credit cards.  From the story:

The red kettles appearing outside Raleigh-area stores Thursday include four equipped with credit card readers to take electronic donations.

The News & Observer reported that The Salvation Army's Wake County chapter joins a handful across the country experimenting with plastic.

Claudville, VA Gets First ‘White Space Network’

Tiny Claudville, VA (pop. 916) is just across the NC-VA state line about 15 miles northeast of Mt. Airy and it has the distinction of being the first place in the country to get a "white space network."  From the BusinessWire story:

For the first time in the U.S., unused TV broadcast channels freed up by the transition to digital TV are being used to wirelessly deliver high-speed Internet connectivity to business, education and community users. These unused frequencies are commonly referred to as TV white spaces. Under an experimental license granted by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), Spectrum Bridge designed and deployed a wireless TV white spaces network to distribute broadband Internet connectivity in Claudville, Virginia. To ensure that Claudville residents can make the most of this new high-speed connectivity, Dell, Microsoft and the TDF Foundation contributed state-of-the-art computer systems and software applications to the local school, as well as the town’s new computer center. As a result, Claudville residents have already begun to reap the benefits of joining the online community…

TV white spaces are vacant channels in the television band and are ideal for sending broadband signals across long distances and for penetrating walls, trees and other objects. These TV white spaces hold enormous potential for expanding broadband access, particularly in rural and other underserved areas…

To discover what white spaces channels are available in your area, the Web site ShowMyWhiteSpace.com offers a free search tool that lists all open white spaces channels at any address in the U.S. This site also contains white spaces news and information, as well as links to FCC documents and other valuable white spaces resources.

The Wake Forest Connection to the David Letterman Affair

Local blogger Ken Ashford writes that one of the women who had a sexual relationship with David Letterman is a graduate of Wake Forest:

UPDATE:  One of the female employees Letterman had a sexual affair with was named Stephanie Burkitt.  She's a New Hampshire native and a Wake Forest graduate (she's following me!).  That relationship ended in 2003, before David's child was born (and before David married the child's mother).  Burkitt later became involved with the Halderman, who apparently accessed Burkitt's diary, and got the goods on Letterman.  Burkitt is apparently "mortified" that Halderman would have done something like that.