Category Archives: Current Affairs

Short, Medium, Long Term

Last week (June 20-24, 2022) was a doozy in the U.S. Any other time the US House of Representatives’ January 6 hearings would have dominated the news cycle, but then you had a couple of Supreme Court rulings that rocked the country, the most “rocking” being the Roe v. Wade rollback that was released on Friday. Predictably, and understandably, that ruling led to protests across the country, and thousands, if not millions (billions?) of posts online.

I’m not a constitutional law expert, nor am I a women’s health expert, so I won’t offer any opinions on the merits of the ruling from a legal or medical standpoint. What I do know something about is working in the non-profit sector, with a particular focus on trade associations. That means I’ve spent a fair amount of time representing industries of one kind or another, and providing services to the member companies and their employees, in an effort to promote the growth of the people as individuals, the companies as businesses, and the industries as a body. That’s why, upon hearing the news from the Supreme Court my thinking went immediately to how I would approach the issue if I thought of those who provide women’s health/abortion services as an association (federation model) and women who could/would be patients as members of that association.
(Update: My daughter, who is much smarter than me, actually did a search and found just such an organization does exist. For those so inclined you can visit https://prochoice.org/ for more information).

First I’d do what every association does when confronted with a world-changing moment. That means we’d do an assessment of the situation and immediately begin defining what we need to do short term — think of these as tactical, “can’t wait” activities — then we figure out our medium- and long-term activities. It’s not that we only do the short-term activities from the start, it’s just that they take top priority at the time. Then we do an assessment of the resources needed to accomplish each activity, figure out which ones we can realistically tackle, focus on those and work our butts off to get the resources needed to accomplish them. Again, I’m no expert on the topic of abortion, but based on what I’ve been reading here’s what I see as some of the challenges and how they could be tackled. It’s not intended to be comprehensive – just a collection of thoughts I’ve had over the last few days.

Short Term (first 3-6 months)

Problem: Probably the most critical challenge is for women currently seeking service in states that have “trigger-laws” that immediately made abortions illegal upon the Supreme Court’s ruling, to get access to legal abortions. Some clinics in those states are already working to open operations in other states where it’s legal, but many women don’t have the resources required to travel to those states.
Solution: The association approach would be to fundraise to pay for travel for the women, and provide expertise and the required technology to affiliated local organizations to coordinate the travel of their “members” to clinics in legal states. This program would continue as long as abortion is illegal in any given state.
Problem: In states with trigger laws there could also be an initial fight in the courts about the legality of organizations aiding women seeking abortions in other states.
Solution: The association approach would be to provide on-demand legal services for local organizations or women who find themselves in a court fight. This could potentially be done in partnership with other organizations like the ACLU and Legal Aid.

Medium Term (next 5 years)

Problem: There are a huge number of passionate, energetic people ready to volunteer to fight for this cause. While there are numerous organizations out there that these folks are active through, there is a risk that they could go in multiple directions and not benefit from leveraging their collective resources.
Solution: Creating a federated organization that can pull these disparate groups together to leverage their resources, and organize them so that their work is optimized for maximum effect. It’s a delicate dance because you have to find a way to balance each organization’s unique identity and offerings, while getting them to line up behind a consistent message, political agenda, shared resources, etc. A good example of what I’m thinking is what Feeding America is to food banks, except that group doesn’t have the political challenge that a pro-choice group would have. You’d think this would be a short-term problem, but there’s no way something this complex gets done in a few months so I’d look at this as a medium-term issue.
Problem: States that ban abortions might also try to prevent women from having access to the “Morning After” pill or other therapeutic measures.
Solution: This is a legal and logistical problem. The legal issue could be addressed by an association’s legal operation; the logistical challenge of getting drugs into the hands of women in need could be addressed by teaming clinicians with Pharmacy Benefit Managers (PBMs) or even Mark Cuban’s new venture Cost Plus Drugs.
Problem: As far as I can tell there is not a strong legal framework that requires men to assume their share of the responsibility, financial and otherwise, for unintended pregnancies.
Solution 1: The association could create, and fundraise for, a cadre of lawyers to represent women in civil court, to require men to pay for pre-natal care, half (at least) of any of the mother’s related health care expenses, child support, etc. Those same lawyers can represent mother’s in any custody hearings. Again, this might be accomplished by partnering with ACLU, Legal Aid, etc.
Solution 1a: Before you beat me up about the atrocious history of men paying child support, another step the association should take is lobbying Congress and/or state legislatures to make sure these payments can be garnished from wages, that mother’s are first in line at any bankruptcy hearing, etc.

Long Term (foreseeable future)

Problem: With the Supreme Court’s ruling a woman’s access to abortions has become contingent on individual states’ laws. That means that women with limited resources living in states that ban abortions will not have equitable access to care that residents of other states, or women of more means in their own states, have.
Solution: This is a purely political challenge. The association will need to form and lead a long-term political operation that brings together stakeholders at all levels, local, state, and federal to effect the necessary changes to give women equal care no matter where they live. I’m not expert enough to say what the legal remedies are, but no matter what they are there will need to be a significant political shift to accomplish them. That will take long-term funding, coordination and will.

Obviously this outline is pretty simplistic, and unlike industry associations that have a relatively easy to define “membership”, the players in the pro-choice world are far more varied. Believe it or not, however, most industry associations have a fairly diverse constituency and often struggle to get members to agree to how to approach issues, what to prioritize with their political operations, where to concentrate their resources, etc. The same challenge will most definitely be faced by any pro-choice “association”, but the benefit that industry associations provide their members – political influence, shared knowledge base, leveraged legal representation, leveraged resources (particularly technology), a bigger messaging megaphone, volunteer recruitment and management – would be realized by women if a pro-choice association approach is taken.

Sobering

For the day job, I get to see lots of reports and data, particularly as it relates to housing. It was one of those reports that had a link to the US Census Household Pulse Survey pageand let me tell you that you’ll find some sobering statistics there about the impact of COVID-19. The survey has been conducted weekly since March 13, 2020, and below are select numbers from week 12, the most recent week available:

Employment Income – Percentage of households that had experienced a loss of employment income:
United States: 51.1%
North Carolina: 45.7%

Expected Loss in Employment Income – Percentage of adults who expect someone in their household to have a loss in employment income in the next 4 weeks:
United States: 35.2%
North Carolina: 29.0%

Food Scarcity- Percentage of adults in households where there was either sometimes or often not enough to eat in the last 7 days:
United States: 12.1%
North Carolina: 11.8%

Delayed Medical Care  Percentage of adults who delayed getting medical care because of the COVID-19 pandemic in the last 4 weeks.
United States: 40.1%
North Carolina: 33.9%

Housing Insecurity – Percentage of adults who missed last month’s rent or mortgage payment, or who have slight or no confidence that their household can pay next month’s rent or mortgage on time.
United States: 26.5%
North Carolina: 23.0%

K-12 Educational Changes – Percentage of adults in households with children in public or private school, where classes were taught in a distance learning format, or changed in some other way.
United States: 99.4%
North Carolina: 99.7%

 

About That Family Gathering

Catawba County (NC) recently published a case study to show how one family gathering of over two dozen people ended up with 14 family members infected with COVID-19 who then spread the infection to 41 people in 9 different families and 8 different workplaces.CatawbaSpread

From the Catawba County posting about this:

Situations like this have become painfully common in Catawba County. I share this example because I hope it can help our community see how easily COVID-19 is actively spreading. More importantly, I hope it will convince us all to be even more willing to do the small things we’re being asked to do to protect ourselves and others: wear a mask in public, maintain physical distance, and wash hands frequently.

It’s not hard to prevent the spread COVID-19. What’s hard is having to call 20, 30, 40 people a day and tell them that not only are they sick with an untreatable illness, but they are also required to isolate themselves from others, including their loved ones, and stay home from work for two weeks or until they recover. This is especially difficult when they do not have the support systems that many of us take for granted, such as paid sick leave, the ability to isolate in their own home, or available caretakers for their children. It’s even harder when they are experiencing severe illness as a result of their exposure – exposure that could have been prevented.

Jobs Retained by PPP in the Triad’s 3 Big Cities

Digging a little more into the PPP numbers from the SBA (see yesterday’s post) it’s interesting to look at the number of small loans (under $150,000) versus the number of larger loans (over $150,000) and the number of jobs they have retained according to the report.

According to the data there were 9,670 loans combined in the three cities and of those 8,131, or 84% were under $150,000.

PPP loans by size

The data also shows that there were 115,448 jobs retained and of those 38,735, or 34% came from the small loans.

PPP Jobs Retained

PPP in Triad’s Big 3 Cities

After the SBA released the PPP data to the public I decided to take a look at the numbers for the three larger cities in the Piedmont Triad: Greensboro, High Point and Winston-Salem. Since the SBA divided it’s data into two separate sets, loans over $150,000 and those less than $150,000 I combined them all in one spreadsheet and then sorted by city and the size of the loan. Here’s what I found:

Between the three cities there were 9,670 businesses that were approved for PPP loans. Here’s how it broke down between the three cities:

PPP cities

The data is also broken down by loan amounts and this is how the loan sizes broke down:

PPP loan amount distribution

This chart reflects the distribution of all 9,670 loans across all three cities, but I found it interesting that this distribution was almost exactly the same across all three cities.

If you want to dig into the data yourself you can download the files here.

Spread

This New York Times interactive piece offers a chilling look into how COVID-19 spread in the US earlier this year. This part, in particular, caught my attention:

HOW THE FIRST OUTBREAKS SPREAD

Top federal health experts concluded by late February that the virus was likely to spread widely within the United States and that government officials would soon need to urge the public to embrace social distancing measures, such as avoiding crowds and staying home.

But Mr. Trump wanted to avoid disrupting the economy. So some of his health advisers, at Mr. Trump’s urging, told Americans at the end of February to continue to travel domestically and go on with their normal lives.

And they did. Millions moved across the country, cellphone data shows. Some unknowingly carried the virus with them.

spread

Travel volume from March 1 to March 14, based on aggregated data from Cuebiq, a data intelligence firm. Minor routes not shown.

The reason this caught my attention is that in the March 1-14 window I traveled from my home in North Carolina to Washington, DC for a business trip that included a visit to the offices of several legislators on Capitol Hill on March 11. If that date looks familiar it’s because that’s the last day that Congress was open to visits from the public. Every office we visited had signs on the door stating that they were discouraging shaking hands, but that didn’t stop at least one Congressman from shaking my hand and one staff member from shaking everyone in my group’s hands – around 10 people.

In addition to visiting the Hill, I was attending a small national industry conference held at the Grand Hyatt. Several hundred people flew in from around the country for that meeting, and we spent hours together in meeting rooms of various sizes over several days. At the beginning of the conference, the only precaution we took was making sure everyone had hand sanitizer and we refrained from shaking hands. Three days later they had set up AV equipment in the meeting rooms so that people could remote in from their hotel rooms if they weren’t comfortable meeting in person.

After the conference, we were informed that if anyone was diagnosed with COVID-19 we would be informed and we never did get that notification. To be safe I decided to work from home for two weeks so I didn’t put my office mates at risk, and of course, by the time that was done, we’d shut down our office and moved everyone to work-from-home status.

In an interesting coincidence the League of Municipalities had a meeting in DC the same week we were there. Several members of Winston-Salem’s city council were there and visited Capitol Hill on the same day we did, March 11. Less than a week later they announced that they were self-isolating because attendees at their conference had tested positive for the virus. If I’d had any question about working from home before that then I’d have made the call to do so then because our paths crossed on the Hill.

So, how many meetings/conferences like ours were held somewhere in the country those first two weeks of March? How many people attending those meetings unwittingly carried the virus home with them? How many were like me: they didn’t really want to go to the meeting, but felt they had to? If the government had come out earlier then those meetings likely wouldn’t have happened and we wouldn’t have had to make that decision. It’s impossible to know how many additional infections/deaths this delay led to, but I suspect it was a substantial number.

This final bit of info from the Times piece:

More than 22,000 deaths in the New York City area could have been avoided if the country had started social distancing just one week earlier, Columbia University researchers estimate.

About 36,000 deaths nationwide could have been avoided by early May had social distancing begun earlier, the estimates say.

When Perception Matches Reality

Since the COVID-19 crisis began one of the local testing centers here in Winston-Salem, NC has been located on Hanes Mall Boulevard near my home, and I’ve driven past it at least a few times a week throughout the crisis. For much of the first six-ish weeks of the crisis, I would either see no one out there, or just the health workers hanging out waiting for potential cases to drive in. Then a few weeks ago I started noticing cars in line with people waiting to be tested, and then more recently I saw those lines getting significantly longer. It was noticeable enough that I mentioned to Celeste, my better 3/4, that I wouldn’t be surprised if we started to see on the news that there were more cases in Forsyth County. Sure enough, over the last two weeks, we’ve seen a heavy surge in cases and we’re not alone as the entire state of North Carolina has seen an uptick in positive test results and hospitalizations. The following is from the Winston-Salem Journal:

Forsyth County has experienced its largest one-day spike with 97 new cases reported Thursday by the county Health Department. The previous daily high was 61 on May 14. The number of COVID-19 related deaths remained unchanged at nine.

The overall total surged to 1,160, which may signal that Forsyth has surpassed Guilford for having the third-most cases by county. The latest N.C. Department of Health and Human Services update, released at 11 a.m. Thursday, had Guilford with 1,137 cases and 56 deaths.

ForsythCovidmay27

This is one of those times where I really wish the reality hadn’t matched my perception.

While we’re here I’ll also share that there’s an anomaly that I can’t wrap my head around: while Forsyth County’s case count has been skyrocketing the deaths have remained relatively low when compared to neighboring Guilford County. Forsyth has 1,160 total cases with 9 deaths, for a fatality rate of .775%. Guilford has 1,173 total cases with 56 deaths, for a fatality rate of 4.77%. Given that the two counties abut each other and are similar in so many ways I just don’t understand what can account for such a large discrepancy.

The numbers are tragic no matter how large or small, but it’s discrepancies like this that make me believe that we still don’t have an accurate picture of what this disease is doing to our community. Only time and good public health science will give us a true picture, and I fear that the worst of this picture is yet to be revealed.

Voices from Past Leaders Trump Today’s

Helluva piece from NPRuses the voices from some of our national leaders of the past to highlight the barren voice of today’s “leader” during our current national tragedy:

BROOKS: Yeah, I guess I’d say tragedies touch us at a deeper level than politics. And at these moments, I think, what presidents do when they’re at their best is they step outside their political role, and they just speak to us humans as humans, whether it was Reagan after The Challenger…

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT RONALD REAGAN: We will never forget them nor the last time we saw them this morning as they prepared for their journey and waved goodbye and slipped the surly bonds of Earth to touch the face of God…

BROOKS: …Or Obama after the Newtown shooting.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: They had their entire lives ahead of them – birthdays, graduations, weddings, kids of their own.

BROOKS: And they really come to us as emotive healers. And with President Trump, we have someone who can’t express empathy. He’s reacted to this crisis simply as a political exercise not as a human tragedy.

KELLY: E.J., your thoughts?

DIONNE: We look to political leaders to help us confront the horrors we experience. We don’t want the horror glossed over or explained away glibly. But we do want paths to hope and solidarity and fellowship and, at least, the possibility that we can emerge from tragedy better than we were before. That’s how we keep living.

The audio is definitely worth a listen if you have a few minutes.

 

Stories by the Numbers

Some interesting numbers. First, check out this graphic from today’s (May 8, 2020, 1:00 p.m.) Wall Street Journal website that highlights why the stock market is a pretty lousy proxy for the economy:

This next number caught my eye because it features a small Nebraska city, Grand Island, where Celeste and I spent one night last summer when we were driving home from Colorado. It’s from an article in the May 7, 2020 Wall Street Journal:

Local officials have now confirmed hundreds of coronavirus cases, with more than 200 linked to a local JBS USA beef plant and another 40 to area nursing homes. There were 1,228 Covid-19 cases as of Tuesday in a city of roughly 51,000, according to the regional health department. That puts its per capita rate of infection well above that of New York, the hardest-hit state in the nation by the coronavirus pandemic.

Compare those numbers to my hometown of Winston-Salem, NC, which has a population of 246,000, 347 confirmed COVID-19 cases and five deaths as of 5/8/2020. So despite have five times the population of Grand Island, Winston-Salem has had less than a third the number of confirmed cases. One interesting piece of info though: Winston-Salem has seen a recent spike in cases and a high percentage of those cases are tied to people who work in a Tysons Food poultry plant located in a county that’s an hour away.

Long story short: food processing plants are becoming a significant hotspot in the less urban parts of the country, and since those operations are all essential and can’t be done remotely, it wouldn’t be a stretch to think that small cities and towns across the country could see a significant per-capita impact for months into the future.