Happy Days Will Be Here Again. Eventually.

Wells Fargo economists say that the economy is improving (h/t to Ed Cone for the link), but that North Carolina has a very long slog in front of it in terms of job creation.  No surprise to anyone who's been paying attention, but interesting just the same:

North Carolina, which had become accustomed  to outperforming the national economy, has underperformed the nation for much of the past decade.  The unemployment rate, which had remained comfortably below the national unemployment rate from 1975 to 2000, has been at or above the national rate for the past decade. Moreover, job growth has been seriously lacking and nonfarm employment is actually lower today than it was at the tail end of the long 1990s business expansion…

North Carolina’s economy also appears to be  on the mend, although a surprisingly weak employment number for the month of November has raised some questions as to how much conditions have actually improved. Private sector payrolls had increased in 8 of the first 10 months of 2010, before plunging by a nation’s worst 11,500 jobs in November. On a year-to-date basis, private sector jobs are now roughly even with where they were one year ago, which is well off the 35,000 jobs we expected to be added this year…  

North Carolina is also facing more structural issues than the nation is. Not only is the state still reeling from the aftermath of the housing  boom, which has weighed on employment in construction and financial services, but it is also dealing with the ongoing restructuring of its industrial base. Manufacturers have eliminated 318,000 jobs across North Carolina over the past decade, with many of the losses occurring in the state’s smaller metropolitan and rural areas. When financial services, technology, tourism and construction were booming, many of these displaced workers could be absorbed in other jobs in the Triangle or Charlotte. Today, however, these industries are growing more slowly and displaced workers are remaining unemployed for longer periods of time…

How Times Have Changed, 2000 to 2010

Here's a link to an interesting graphic that highlights how things have changed in the last decade.  A sample:

Cell phone subscriptions per 100 people: 8 in 2000, 76.2 in 2010

Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people: 0 in 2000, 8 in 2010

Mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 people: 0 in 2000, 13.6 in 2010

Chinese power consumption (in trillion kw/h): 1.25 in 2000, 4.17 in 2010

US power consumption (in quadrillion BTU): 98.97 in 2000, 97.72 in 2010

Average price of crude oil (per barrel): $28.23 in 2000, $64.97 in 2010

Maybe We Really Are Turning Into a Country of Wusses

Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell made news earlier this week when he said (I'm paraphrasing) that we Americans are turning into a bunch of wusses.  His remark came after the NFL postponed Sunday's NFL game between the Eagles and Vikings in Philadelphia due to the snow storm that was blowing through the city that day.  The NFL hadn't taken an action like that since the 1930s and Rendell saw it as a sign that we're getting soft.

I'm beginning to think he might be right. Why do I say that?  Because of stories like this one where a stellar student in Sanford, NC was suspended for the remainder of her senior year because she had a paring knife in her lunch.  Even if you don't buy her dad's story that the lunch was his and she'd accidentally picked it up, what does it say about us that we'd suspend a kid who's never been in trouble before for over half of a school year because she had a paring knife in her lunch? She never took it out, much less threaten anyone with it, so how do you suspend a kid for that amount of time for making what appears to be an honest mistake?

The story reminded me of the time my son, who's now a HS senior himself, had a toy gun in his backpack in kindergarten.  My wife somehow realized that it was probably in his backpack and raced to school to intercept him before he managed to get it into the classroom.  Thankfully the lady in the office had the common sense to look the other way when my wife took the neon colored, bubble shaped gun from my son's backpack and slipped it in her purse.  If she hadn't my son could have been suspended for the year too. That's just craziness.

I know that two stories don't make a trend, but I swear our ancestors would scoff at us if they saw how we lead our increasingly risk-averse lives.  After all they lived during times where children died all too often, antibiotics didn't exist, cars and the horse carriages that preceded them didn't have seat belts, no one wore helmets but most men wore hats, people actually killed their own dinners and, most shockingly, no one had air conditioning.  I fear that if we could travel back in time we'd all be dead in a month.

Jerks Like These

My personal take on the collapse of the housing sector of our economy is that we have wasted way too much time trying to place blame on our own perceived bogeymen.  It's human nature: when something goes wrong the first thing we want to do is figure out whose fault it is and then yell for them to be punished severely. 

The problem with assigning blame in the housing meltdown is that there are so many people and institutions to blame, and just about everybody is picking their own bad guy based on their own preconceptions. If you're somebody who sees people who use social services as leeches on the rest of us then you're quite likely to lay the blame at all the people who took out loans they couldn't pay, and you may not even consider that when people took out those loans they could pay them but then lost a job and the situation changed.  If you're somebody who sees the world through a "the Man is out to screw all of us" lens then you're likely to lay the blame at the feet of all the corrupt banksters who are funding their corporate jets by defrauding regular ol' working slobs like you and me.  If you're someone who thinks all government is bad then you're likely to blame the entire fiasco on Fannie and Freddie. Funny thing is, you're all right.

So it would seem that assigning blame doesn't help us much because the entire system has been corrupted, but without at least trying to hold people accountable we set ourselves up to do this all over again. We need to make sure that when we do find people behaving badly that we do whatever we can to make sure they don't do it again and that we let the rest of society know that if they behave in the same way then truly painful consequences await them.  For this reason I don't think it's enough to reach financial settlements with institutions that packaged toxic loans and sold them as if they weren't the crap they really were; I think you have to go after the people who made those decisions and punish them individually.  Of course it will be difficult, but until you hit people where they live you aren't going to do much to prevent it from happening again. 

Probably the biggest mistake we could make would be treating this as a purely legal issue, because until we instill ethical and moral societal norms we will have done nothing to deal with our systemic problems. People who behave ethically do not make loans to people they are almost certain will eventually default, nor do ethical people walk away from a mortgage when their bet on the property value doesn't pan out.  That's why I find people like this guy profiled in today's Wall Street Journal to be our society's true jerks:

When Chris Hanson bought his $875,000 luxury condominium in Scottsdale, Ariz., four years ago, he could afford the $90,000 down payment.

He said he had no difficulty paying the $5,000 monthly mortgage on the three-bedroom unit, which has floor-to-ceiling windows and views of Camelback Mountain. The condo is in a gated complex with a gym and pool.

And, true to his word, he didn't miss a single payment—until last month. Concluding that the home, now worth about half of what he paid, won't recover its value for at least 10 years, Mr. Hanson decided to walk away.

"It's a no-brainer once you do the math," said the 27-year-old real-estate investor.

He plans to let the lender foreclose on the home and rent an even nicer unit in either the same complex or one nearby, which he figures will cost less than half of his monthly mortgage payment…

Mr. Hanson runs an investment firm that buys up foreclosed properties and resells them. He said the company buys two to three homes a week at prices ranging from $15,000 to $1 million; they've recently expanded into distressed multifamily homes. He said he realized months ago his home would take years to recover its value but decided only six weeks ago to stop making payments.

He worried that wrecking his sterling 800 credit score would make it harder to run his business. But, in the end, he said he decided it was worth the risk.

To make my point, Mr. Hanson should have to worry about more than his credit score as a consequence of his behavior.  Part of me would love to see him go to jail, but more than anything I'd like to live in a society that would make his public shame so great that he'd never even consider walking away. Of course as long as man has inhabited the Earth we've had bad apples, but somehow I think our society has enabled far more of them than is even remotely acceptable.

Using Social Media to Brainstorm Changes for North Carolina’s Government

Former Forsyth County commissioner and NC State rep Ted Kaplan is using Facebook to share ideas on how to reduce the state budget.  He's posting one suggestion a day and thus far we have:

Day 1:Increase tuition rates by 24% (at $4,400 we are the lowest in the land) and reduce the number of years to get a bachelors degree to 3. There may be some summer work. In total the tuition increase won’t cost student's more (less room and board too) but will allow for more students to get degrees.

Day 2:Today’s proposal: To consolidate the admissions offices of the University System. Each applicant sends in one application to the UNC system with a list of preferred schools. The applicant will get back a list of schools which best fits the student. This would reduce the costs for applications. There will be exceptions , athletics and scholarships. The costs of eliminating each schools admissions office and funding a new universal admissions office will save over $30 million and reduce paperwork.

He received over 40 comments on day one and already today, day two, he has five comments. If I was a state leader I'd be considering this as a method of getting some constituent feedback.

Proofiness: Why I Love Reading a Variety of Stuff Online

I love reading stuff from a wide variety of sources online because, if nothing else, it often makes me laugh.  Today's example from a conservative blog:

We maintain that Global Warming is the greatest hoax ever played other than the hoax of Obama’s constitutional eligibility to be president of the United States.

Hey, everyone's entitled to their opinions, even if they fly in the face of the preponderance of evidence. Seth Godin calls it "proofiness" and I think I'm going to be using that term a lot to describe some of the stuff I come across in my online travels.