Sharing the Road in Lewisville

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Anyone who lives in Lewisville, NC knows that our town is a pretty popular destination for cyclists. I'll often hear grumbling about the inconvenience of having to wait behind large packs of riders, aka pelotons, on some of the beautiful country roads that make the town such an inviting place to live and bike. I don't hear many complaints about individual riders, or groups of two or three, but that's because they're relatively easy to pass even on our two lane roads with no shoulders.

All that being said I've also seen some crazy decisions made by impatient drivers. Passing just before a blind curve, passing on a rise with oncoming traffic too close for comfort, passing too close to the actual cyclist, etc. Part of me understands the frustration – most of us aren't cyclists and thus don't understand the draw of riding on roads when you could just toddle on down to Salem Lake or Muddy Creek and ride on trails without inconveniencing drivers – and I especially feel the frustration myself when I'm running late for something and am stuck behind a bunch of cyclists. But you know what? We need to get over it.

Here's the deal: just because most of us aren't cyclists and don't understand the draw of riding on our roads, there are obviously people who love it and that's their right. And "right" is the correct word because unless the laws change cyclists have as much of a right to the road as drivers of cars and motorcycles. Sure they need to follow the rules just like we drivers do, and I'm sure that some of them roll through red lights or do rolling stops at stop signs, but I'm also pretty sure that the same percentage or more of drivers do the same thing, and I'm absolutely positive that almost every driver in Lewisville has pulled a (technically) illegal passing maneuver on a cyclist.

Why am I bringing this up now? Because I just read this article about a Winston-Salem cyclist killed in an accident in Greensboro, and although it sounds like there might have been mitigating circumstances (blinding sun) it still reminded me that I'm in constant fear of seeing this kind of story in Lewisville. Whether we see our visiting cyclists as a blessing or a curse we need to respect their right to the road, and do everything we can to make sure we all share the road safely.

On a related, but different note: I think a nice little entrepreneurial venture would be opening a temporary refreshment stand near Shallowford Square. (Think hotdog stand with healthy stuff instead of hotdogs, chips and sodas).  The cyclists tend to park downtown and launch their rides from there so I'd imagine they'd be willing customers once they're rides are done. There are also lots of folks who walk and jog downtown these days so I'd imagine they'd be a good market too. That's assuming you can get a permit from the town to do it, but it might be worth a try.

Girls and Math

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With a daughter who is interested in studying engineering in college (she's a high school senior), and seeing the reactions on peoples' faces when Erin tells them that she's leaning towards that field of study, I have to say I'm not surprised to see this piece about teachers' biases about girls' math skills. I'm also afraid that this quote may be more true than not:

“If the math bias against females is present in elementary school, which past research shows it is, and continues through high school and then college, then it’s much less likely that you will find women pursuing math-related high-status occupations in science and technology,” says Riegle-Crumb. “If you perceive the message ‘You’re just not quite as good at math as the boys are’ often enough, you may start to believe it.” 

Erin applied to several schools, including Embry Riddle and NC State, and thankfully she was accepted to both. If you're not familiar with it, Embry Riddle is a school that defines itself as an "Aeronautical University" so it's degree programs are all heavily dedicated to aeronautics (engineering, physics, math, etc.). Not many people are familiar with Embry Riddle so when Erin would explain it to them their looks of surprise were even more pronounced than when she mentioned she had applied to State.

Personally, I think people just assume girls prefer, and are more suited to the humanities, and that engineering and math are boys' playgrounds. Unfortunately if Erin stays on the course she's chosen – and let's remember that there are plenty of kids who change their majors mid-stream – I think she'll be fighting this kind of bias for the rest of her academic and professional careers. It's a shame that might be the case, but you can bet we'll be supporting her the whole way – if people want to assume something based on her gender then that's their problem.

By the way, as parents we're thrilled that Erin opted for State. Not that we don't think she would have done well at Embry Riddle, we just thought that the wider variety of programs at State would allow her the maximum flexibility to explore all fields of study and make whatever choice best suits her. And then there's the not-so-small issue of distance and we LOVE the fact that she'll only be a two hour drive away. Of course if she still wants to go into the field aeronautics she can always go to Embry Riddle for graduate level studies, and I fully expect she'll be able to do anything she sets her mind to, because as most mature men know, women rule. 

Finding Your Voice

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Fred Wilson is definitely a top-shelf business blogger, if not the best. He started his blog AVC when he was 42, and he does a great job in this post in explaining how it helped him find his voice for the first time (and how his wife's blog did the same for her). An excerpt is provided below, but I think it's important to point out that you could replace "blog" with "newsletter", or "Facebook profile", "YouTube video",or "LinkedIn post", or any other form of communication and make the same point – the important thing is to find whatever it is that gives your voice an outlet:

Everyone has something to say, something to contribute, everyone can make a difference. And I believe the Internet is making it easier for all of us to find that voice, use it, and make that difference.

I am supporting evidence item number one in this case. I was 42 years old when I started blogging. I'd always had a lot to say. Just ask my mom about that. But I never really found the place and the way to get it all out. AVC became that thing and now I've got a platform to make a difference. I hope I'm using it well.

I have watched so many people find their voice on the Internet over the years and it warms my heart when they nail it. It happens all the time in the blog comments here at AVC. I'm not going to name names but you all know the stories and who they are.

Americans Elect Gets on the NC Ballot

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This is an update to a February 19 post (Presidential Election 2.0) in which I wrote about a group called Americans Elect which described itself as: 

a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that is not affiliated with any political party, ideology or candidate. It is funded exclusively by individual contributions—and not from corporate, labor, special interest, foreign, or lobbyist sources. And we intend to repay our initial financing so that no single individual will have contributed more than $10K.

Ultimately, Americans Elect is the first nominating process that will be led directly by voters like YOU…

THE GOAL OF AMERICANS ELECT is to nominate a presidential ticket that answers directly to voters—not the political system.

According to the Raleigh News & Observer they've been successful in getting on the ballot in North Carolina and 20 other states so far for the 2012 election. This could get pretty interesting.

Freewheeling Hippies vs. Button Down Managers

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Some behavioral scientists studied the "top 155 political blogs" during the 2008 election year and compared the liberal and conservative blogs. From their abstract we learn:

Notably, the authors find evidence of an association between ideological affiliation and the technologies, institutions, and practices of participation. Blogs on the left adopt different, and more participatory, technical platforms, comprise significantly fewer sole-authored sites, include user blogs, maintain more fluid boundaries between secondary and primary content, include longer narrative and discussion posts, and (among the top half of the blogs in the sample) more often use blogs as platforms for mobilization…

The practices of the left are more consistent with the prediction that the networked public sphere offers new pathways for discursive participation by a wider array of individuals, whereas the practices of the right suggest that a small group of elites may retain more exclusive agenda-setting authority online. (Emphasis mine)

Gee, I'm just shocked that liberal blogs would be wordier and less centrally controlled than conservative blogs, or that conservatives would maintain a more hierarchical structure. I also like the term "more fluid boundaries between secondary and primary content"; I might use that in the future. As for the liberal blogs using the platform more for mobilization I think it's important that we remember this is a study of 2008's election in which it was pretty clear that Obama's team, and by extension the liberal online universe, cleaned everybody's clock. Since then the opposite side has played a great game of catchup as evidenced by the mid-term election in 2010 and I think this year's going to be much more of a horse race.

Next Year’s Property Revaluation in Forsyth is Going to Be a Doozy

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From Yes!Weekly's blog post on the proposed bond referendum that would pay for streetcars in Winston-Salem among other things:

Budget challenges faced by the city include an anticipated 11-percent decrease to the property tax base with revaluation next year, the loss of federal stimulus dollars for police salaries, increased fuel costs, and plans for the city to kick in more for employee salaries and healthcare benefits.

For all of these reasons, City Manager Lee Garrity told the city council’s finance committee this evening that he is recommending that there be no bond referendum this year.

“The latest numbers for the first quarter of this calendar year are very concerning,” he said. “Sales of houses are up, as you may have read, but the price versus assessed value is down. A house in Forsyth County right now on average is selling for 11 percent below tax value. What that means for us going into the year after next with the budget is pretty significant.” (Emphasis mine).

The last time we went through a revaluation in Forsyth we were in the midst of the financial meltdown and at the time I though revaluations would not accurately reflect the true value of a property because there hadn't been time for the sales comps to have an impact on the system. Literally nothing was selling at the time so the comps were all pre-meltdown, and thus I felt they were artificially inflated. Those comps are now in the system and as the city manager pointed out this revaluation is going to show a significant drop in values, which means that tax rates will be raised significantly.

Here's the funny thing – the size of the check each property owner will be sending is likely to be close to the same amount they sent this year. That's because from the city/county's perspective they need a certain amount of revenue to make their budget (note I'm not saying whether or not the budget itself is a good thing), so when property values go up the city council or county commission will leave the rate flat or even reduce it so they can say they reduced taxes. Obviously they didn't really reduce the dollars, just the tax rate. Nice, huh? When property values go down they have to raise the tax rate, but in reality the actual tax dollars isn't much at all compared to the previous budget year. That's when you'll hear the council members and commissioners talking about how they were able to minimize the tax dollars each property owner had to send them, not the increase in the tax rate. Actually, if you read the Yes! Weekly post you'll see that they're already doing this and who can blame them?

I've said it before and I'll say it again, I think the best way to do this is having an annual revaluation. It's the fairest system because it more accurately reflects property values at any given time, prevents property owners from seeing 10-20% changes in their property values all at once, and makes budgeting for the city and county a little steadier. 

Reduced Mental Effort Leads to Conservative Beliefs?

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So, I'm reading this Freaknomics post and thinking, "If I repeat this out loud in my neck of the woods I might get my butt kicked" which of course prompted me to post it on a blog with my name on it for the world to see:

New research(summarized in the BPS Digest) finds that “low-effort” thinking about a given issue is more likely to result in a conservative stance…

The BPS Digest places the research in a larger context: “The finding that reduced mental effort encourages more conservative beliefs fits with prior research suggesting that attributions of personal responsibility (versus recognising the influence of situational factors), acceptance of hierarchy and preference for the status quo – all of which may be considered hallmarks of conservative belief - come naturally and automatically to most people, at least in western societies.”

FYI, I'm definitely posting this to Facebook so I can watch all my conservative friends get all twitchy. It's been at least two hours since one of them has blamed "Godless liberals" for the end America so I might as well get them kickstarted.

Make Sure to Tell Your Ambulance Driver to Head to the High Rent Hospital

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From the Freakonomics blog:

Both strategies show that higher-cost hospitals have significantly lower one-year mortality rates compared to lower-cost hospitals. We find that common indicators of hospital quality, such as indicators for “appropriate care” for heart attacks, are generally not associated with better patient outcomes. On the other hand, we find that measures of “leading edge” hospitals, such as teaching hospitals and hospitals that quickly adopt the latest technologies, are associated with better outcomes, but have little impact on the estimated mortality-hospital cost relationship. We also find that hospital procedure intensity is a key determinant of the mortality-cost relationship, suggesting that treatment intensity, and not differences in quality reflected in prices, drives much of our findings. The evidence also suggests that there are diminishing returns to hospital spending and treatment intensity.

Basically what they're saying is that if you go to the budget hospital you're likely screwed.

If Stupid People Organized

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Scott Adams (the Dilbert dude) has a blog post where he asks a simple question – "What would happen if stupid people figured out how to organize their vast numbers into a cohesive political force?" – and then provides an example of people organizing around a stupid idea via change.org and points out that the organization is a tool for both good and bad:

I don't know if the good work that comes out of Change.org offsets the bad. In any case, I don't think free speech should be curtailed. My point is that Change.org is a tool that can empower both smart people and stupid people, and that only one of those situations is good. 

In my mind a big group of stupid people isn't all that scary because, well, they're stupid and as a result Darwin's Law will kick in sooner rather than later. At the other extreme an organized group of nutjobs, zealots and evil people scares the crap out of me for obvious reasons. But what really scares me are the kinda smart people in the middle – the folks who are smart enough to get things done, but not smart enough to realize they're tools – who enable one really talented nutjob to do bad things on a massive scale.