Revaluation

The Winston-Salem Journal did a big front page piece in today's paper about Forsyth County's property revaluation.  I've written before about my take on revaluation, but I want to re-emphasize my two main problems with how the county is handling the process:

  • Revaluations should be done annually, not every four years.  One reason for this are that you are more likely to get an accurate reflection of a property's current value, and not a value skewed by a housing market that was hot three years earlier and is significantly cooler now.  Another is that you spread the tax gains (and pain) over time, which is better for both the government and the taxpayer.
  • But given that the county is doing revaluations every four years they should at least come up with a formula that weighs the change in the marketplace.  My understanding is that they are taking the average home sales for a certain area over a set amount of time, which I believe is the five year assessment period.  If your neighborhood had 200 home sales in the first 3 years of the assesment period and home prices were rising, but then only had 50 home sales over the last year of the assessment period while home prices were falling then the average would skew to the higher prices of a rising housing market that no longer exists.  That means your home value will not accurately reflect its current value in the home valuation, but rather an average of its value over the five year period.  What makes that inherently unfair is that you will be stuck with that higher valuation for five years, even if the value continues to decline.

The potential saving grace of the process is that the county commissioners determine our tax rate so they can lower the tax rate in order to lower the tax burden of higher property valuations.  Still, since most people don't trust politicians this is small comfort to most.  

Another point: when the property valuations are low at the beginning of the valuation period and then there's a sharp increase in the property values the county actually misses an opportunity to capture that increase in terms of tax revenue.  If we moved to an annual revaluation they could capture those increases in real time and even if the commissioners lowered the tax rate they would most likely still see an increase in tax revenue, but they would probably have fewer complaints from homeowners because the revaluations would more accurately reflect current values and would thus seem more reasonable.  Also, instead of seeing large changes in value from one revaluation to the next we'd see gradual changes that are easier to swallow.  

Winston-Salem in the Movies

The New York Times has a very favorable review of Goodbye Solo, an indepedent film that is set in Winston-Salem.  If you take a look at the review on the Times' site you can also view a trailer for the movie.  I did and now I'm thinking I'd really like to go see it at the upcoming RiverRun International Film Festival being held in Winston-Salem from April 22-29, 2009. Goodbye Solo's screening is scheduled for April 25 at 4:00 p.m.

Mia, Mia, Mia

This morning I received the following email from my lovely wife Celeste.  It was sent after she'd already dealt with an outrageous billing issue with our former insurance company and had left our dog Mia to her own devices for two hours this morning.  Luckily Mia was confined to the family room, sun room and kitchen or who knows what she might have done. Here's the text of the email:

Subject: Mia. Mia. Mia.
 
On top of the Blue Cross thing now there's the Mia thing. Or should I say THINGS?
 
1. Pee on the kitchen floor.
2. Notebook paper chewed up like a shredder on the family room floor.
3. An entire bag of tortilla strips in a pile in the sunroom (a rather neat and tidy pile by the way).
4. My knitting. Oh yes this is wonderful. The once neatly wound ball of yarn is now a bird's nest.
5. Did I mention that my knitting needles are now toothpicks and splinters?
6. Who knew a baseball was made of so many little white strings?
7. She obviously doesn't like the taste of the English muffins because they made it from the butcher block in the kitchen to the back door of the sunroom unscathed.
8. Erin's celestial orb (the pretty silver thing with colorful beads that can be made into various shapes) is not in working order any more.
9. And the crowning glory? A big pile of poop.

Celeste


I dare not laugh lest I be forced to live the rest of my life sans one limb or another.

Layoffs = No Insurance or Crappy Insurance

News that should surprise no one: North Carolina has the fastest growing population of people without health insurance.  Since North Carolina is also a leader in lost jobs this isn't exactly shocking news.  The report referenced in the story contains an estimate of 1.75 million people in the state who don't have health insurance.  The US Census shows North Carolina's population in 2007 as 9,061,032 so that means that the percentage of people in North Carolina without health insurance is roughly 19%.  

As scary a number as 19% is, I'm wondering how many of the other 81% are under-insured?  I can tell you from first hand experience that it's very expensive to buy insurance that offers decent coverage and I suspect that there are plenty of people who have purchased what can only be termed "crappy" insurance in order to keep their premiums affordable.  Having purchased some crappy insurance myself in an effort to battle premiums that jumped 30% one year I can tell you what the results were:
  • Our insurer basically disputed every claim.
  • Our riders that were supposed to provide a certain number of office visits at no additional cost basically did nothing.  We still ended up paying out of pocket. 
  • Our coverage was almost impossible to understand which means we started avoiding the doctor for fear that it would cost us $120 to find out one of us had a simple soar throat. 
  • Luckily we didn't experience any major illnesses, but if we'd kept that coverage I think we might have ended up with undiagnosed illnesses because we tried to avoid the doctor.  

Basically we started to view our insurance as "armageddon coverage", only to be used in case of a catastrophe and I'm not entirely confident it would have covered us even in those circumstances.  My point is that if even 10% of the 81% of insured North Carolinians has similar coverage then we're probably looking at close to 700,000 people that could be living with easily treatable illnesses that could grow into major health crises because they're afraid to see the doctor and who might not then be covered adequately when they end up in the hospital.  Add that to the 1.75 million people without any insurance and you have a really frightening number of people at risk for financial devastation if they get sick.

More Pie-Eyed Optimism

A couple of days ago I wrote about my hope that due to a decrease in foreclosure rates here in North Carolina we are actually a leading indicator that the nation's economy has hit bottom.  My friend Dan called me a pie-eyed optimist as a result.  I did temper my post with the news that home sales in Greensboro were down 38% in February from same month sales the year before, so I wasn't real shocked when I read today that Winston-Salem's home sales in February were down 30% from the year before.  Average home prices were also down, but given the number of foreclosures on the market that's not exactly a shock either.

So, am I still standing with my pie-eyed optimism?  Why yes I am.  My hope is that:
  • Foreclosures have peaked 
  • Our glutted housing inventory will start to clear 
  • House prices will stabilize (normalize)   
  • By some miracle the government's plan for the banks works (longest shot of all) and even if it doesn't that the "free markets" actually work the way they're supposed to and that we get through the painful period sooner rather than later.  
  • By some miracle the financial industry learns its lesson and starts acting like, well, like what we used to think bankers acted like. 
  • Americans continue with their newly-found frugality, but at the same time begin to emerge from their monastic existence of the last six months and begin to buy things within reason (and their budgets).
  • American companies begin hiring people once their businesses have stabilized and that the companies subsequently treat their employees well and perhaps think about spending a little less on executive "talent" and a little more on employee and customer satisfaction.
  • By some miracle I can retire before the age of 97 and live in a society where my grandchildren at least have the same standard of living that their great-grandparents and grandparents enjoyed.  Asking for them to have a better standard might be a bit much at this point.

Wilbur Replacing Weather at WXII

Did you know that WXII has a 24 hour weather channel?  If you did I guess you didn't have much company because WXII has decided to replace their weather programming on the channel with 24 hours of really old TV shows like Mr. Ed and movies that you've probably never heard of.  From the story:

Starting June 1, WXII will be replacing its Weather Plus sub-channel with This TV, a free movie and classic television channel offered by Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, the station announced Monday…

This TV programming includes 4,000 film and 10,000 television series episodes in agreement with six distinct studio libraries: Cannon, United Artists, Polygram Filmed Entertainment, Orion, Samuel Goldwyn Films and MGM.

Classic television shows such as Patty Duke and Mr. Ed, as well as feature-length movies, will be offered 24 hours per day.

Goodbye Lanie Pope, hello Donna Reed.

Bonus points to anyone who can tell me who the "Wilbur" refers to in the title of this post.

Foreclosures from the Feed Reader

One of the Google Alerts I have set up is "forsyth county nc" and it regularly sends some interesting items to my Google Reader.  For instance I get lots of links from a site called bankforeclosuressale.com that include the addresses of houses listed in their database as being in foreclosure. Here's this morning's sampling:

You'll notice when you visit the different pages that the addresses don't show up on the pages unless you register for the site.  I don't want to register for the site so luckily for me the addresses show up in the feed so I don't have to.  The glum part of this is that these are houses that people have lost, but on the brighter side I'm seeing fewer of these in my reader these days than I was a while back.  Hopefully that's a trend that will continue.