The boys at Freakonomics have come up with another interesting point. In this one they posit that we’ll probably see a disproportionate number of players born in January and February in this year’s World Cup. Their reasoning has to do with FIFA’s adopting a January 1 cutoff date for determining eligibility on national youth soccer teams which should have a ripple effect throughout the rest of the players’ careers.
Upon further review they decided that since different countries use different dates for their own "in country" purposes that the World Cup might not be the best example. So they looked at the NHL and found a very strong relationship between birth months early in the year and participation in the league (hardly any players were born between September and December).
I was one of those kids with a September birthday that could make me either the oldest kid or youngest kid in the class. My mom was told that if I was held back I’d probably get bored and become a troublemaker so she opted for me to be the youngest, which wasn’t really a problem until 8th and 9th grade. I was a late bloomer so when I got out of 9th grade I was barely 5 feet tall which didn’t help my athletic or romantic prospects.
For 10th grade I transferred to a small private school (85 students) and by default all the boys played every sport. That coincided with my first growth spurt so by the time I was through 11th grade I was 5’8 and getting some playing time on the soccer field and basketball court. My senior year I was 6 feet tall and weighed in at 150 pounds (I couldn’t put weight on no matter how hard I tried) and I averaged 16 points a game on the varsity basketball team. I often wonder what kind of high school career I would have had if I was held back a year. I put 20 pounds on my freshman year of college and I can only imagine I would have had a pretty good senior year.
No regrets though; I might have been good enough to get a scholarship to a small school which would have changed the course of my whole life. I wouldn’t have gone to GMU, met my wife and as happy as I am now I wouldn’t do anything to change those eventualities.
Back to the original point: in my mind there is absolutely no doubt that the arbitrary cut-off dates that youth sports leagues use has a huge impact on kids’ level of success.