Category Archives: Economics

American Idiots

Found this via Ed Cone: Kevin Phillips doesn't think the average American can grasp the scope of our financial disaster, and because of that we're doomed to be continually led down the path of financial cornholery by the same abusers who have taken us this far.  Have to say I probably agree, and when you read Phillips' post you might too.

The principal inventors, hustlers , borrowers and culprits were the nation's 15-20 largest and best known financial institutions – including the ones that keep making headlines by demanding more bail-out money from Washington and giving huge bonuses. These same institutions got much of the early bail-out money and as of December 2008 they accounted for over half of the bad assets written off. The reason these needed so much money is that they government had let them merge, speculate, expand and experiment on dimensions beyond all logic. That is why the complicit politicians and regulators have to talk about $100 billion here and $1 trillion there even while they pretend that it's all under control and that the run-amok financial sector remains sound.

This is a much grander-scale disaster than anything that happened in 1929-33. Worse, it dwarfs the abuses of debt, finance and financialization that brought down previous leading world economic powers like Britain and Holland (back when New York was New Amsterdam). I will return to these little-mentioned precedents in another post this week.

But for the moment, let me underscore: the average American knows little of the dimensions of the financial sector aggrandizement and misbehavior involved. Until this is remedied, there probably will not be enough informed, focused indignation to achieve far-reaching reform in the teeth of financial sector money and influence. Equivocation will triumph. This will not displease politicians and regulators leery of offending their contributors and backers.

Obama Turning Into a Skid or Accelerating Into a Concrete Wall?

Penn Jillette writes a commentary piece that asks the right questions about our current straits in his own quirky way.  It comes down to this: is spending our way out of the recession/depression a counterintuitive necessity like turning into a skid on an icy road, or is it a suicidal decision like accelerating your car as you approach an oncoming reinforced concrete wall?

Layoffs = No Insurance or Crappy Insurance

News that should surprise no one: North Carolina has the fastest growing population of people without health insurance.  Since North Carolina is also a leader in lost jobs this isn't exactly shocking news.  The report referenced in the story contains an estimate of 1.75 million people in the state who don't have health insurance.  The US Census shows North Carolina's population in 2007 as 9,061,032 so that means that the percentage of people in North Carolina without health insurance is roughly 19%.  

As scary a number as 19% is, I'm wondering how many of the other 81% are under-insured?  I can tell you from first hand experience that it's very expensive to buy insurance that offers decent coverage and I suspect that there are plenty of people who have purchased what can only be termed "crappy" insurance in order to keep their premiums affordable.  Having purchased some crappy insurance myself in an effort to battle premiums that jumped 30% one year I can tell you what the results were:
  • Our insurer basically disputed every claim.
  • Our riders that were supposed to provide a certain number of office visits at no additional cost basically did nothing.  We still ended up paying out of pocket. 
  • Our coverage was almost impossible to understand which means we started avoiding the doctor for fear that it would cost us $120 to find out one of us had a simple soar throat. 
  • Luckily we didn't experience any major illnesses, but if we'd kept that coverage I think we might have ended up with undiagnosed illnesses because we tried to avoid the doctor.  

Basically we started to view our insurance as "armageddon coverage", only to be used in case of a catastrophe and I'm not entirely confident it would have covered us even in those circumstances.  My point is that if even 10% of the 81% of insured North Carolinians has similar coverage then we're probably looking at close to 700,000 people that could be living with easily treatable illnesses that could grow into major health crises because they're afraid to see the doctor and who might not then be covered adequately when they end up in the hospital.  Add that to the 1.75 million people without any insurance and you have a really frightening number of people at risk for financial devastation if they get sick.

North Carolina Ahead of the Curve

It might be hard to believe right now, but we here in North Carolina might be leading indicators for the US economy.  Just as we started feeling the brunt of the recession before most of the rest of the country we might also be the first to feel the 'bottom' and see a recovery.  This occurred to me when I read that foreclosures in February were down almost 50% compared to February of last year in North Carolina, but the rest of the country experienced a 30% increase in foreclosures.  Yeah, yeah this is just one indicator and it's surrounded by other negative stories like the sales of existing homes in Greensboro falling 38% in February, but since foreclosures were a key factor in the start of our economic collapse it would seem that a decline in foreclosures would be a good sign that the bottom might be near.

Call be a pie-eyed optimist, but I'll take good news anywhere I can get it.

Warren Buffett on Housing

This excerpt from Warren Buffett's letter to shareholders should be required reading for everyone involved in the housing and financial industries:

Commentary about the current housing crisis often ignores the crucial fact that most foreclosures do not occur because a house is worth less than its mortgage (so-called “upside-down” loans). Rather, foreclosures take place because borrowers can’t pay the monthly payment that they agreed to pay. Homeowners who have made a meaningful down-payment – derived from savings and not from other borrowing – seldom walk away from a primary residence simply because its value today is less than the mortgage. Instead, they walk when they can’t make the monthly payments.

Home ownership is a wonderful thing. My family and I have enjoyed my present home for 50 years, with more to come. But enjoyment and utility should be the primary motives for purchase, not profit or refi possibilities. And the home purchased ought to fit the income of the purchaser.

The present housing debacle should teach home buyers, lenders, brokers and government some simple lessons that will ensure stability in the future. Home purchases should involve an honest-to-God down payment of at least 10% and monthly payments that can be comfortably handled by the borrower’s income. That income should be carefully verified. 

Putting people into homes, though a desirable goal, shouldn’t be our country’s primary objective. Keeping them in their homes should be the ambition.

Health Insurance Relief for Laid Off Workers Thanks to Stimulus Package

My wife Celeste is a bookkeeper by trade and as a result receives a lot of publications that, quite frankly, make my eyes gloss over.  However, today she forwarded me a newsletter from the American Institute of Professional Bookkeepers that contained an article about "hidden traps" in the new stimulus law that definitely had my eyes wide open.  Here's part of what the article said:

The new law includes a 65% federally funded COBRA continuation subsidy that lasts up to 9 months for workers (and their families) involuntarily terminated from Sept. 1, 2008-Dec. 31, 2009. The subsidy terminates when the former employeeis offered employer-sponsored health care coverage by a new employer; orbecomes eligible for Medicare; or has COBRA coverage that has expired.  
Notify within 60 days of Feb. 17 former employees involuntarily separated between Sept. 1, 2008-Feb. 17, 2009. Notify those who elected COBRA that they are entitled to a lower premium starting in the first coverage period after Feb. 17. Notify those who rejected COBRA that they have 60 days to elect COBRA and receive the subsidy. You can let former employees choose a less expensive plan. No subsidy is available to former employees whose income is over $125,000 a year or a family income over $250,000 a year, but employers are not required to monitor for the income phaseout.

Later on the article mentions that the employers are responsible for paying 65% of the health benefits up front and then getting reimbursed by the federal government by reducing their federal income tax contributions.  If the amount of healthcare subsidies exceed what the company owes in taxes then the company will have to apply for a reimbursement from the US Treasure, and there's no telling how long that will take.  Can we say cash flow problems?  Also, the first subsidies can come due as soon as March 1, 2009 so companies literally need to move on this now.

If you've been laid off and are paying COBRA or paying for insurance as an individual this could save you some serious money.  For instance if you're using your employer's health plan via COBRA to cover your family, which means you're paying 100% of the cost, then you could easily be spending over $1,000 per month for your premiums.  With the government picking up 65% of the tab that payment drops to $350 which is some serious savings.

Keep an eye out for a notice from your former employer and if you don't get one within about 45 days then contact the human resources department or whoever at the company is responsible for administering benefits and ask them to send you more information.

 

Furloughs at Journal Now Official

Media General, parent company of the Winston-Salem Journal, announced today that they're requiring their employees to take ten days of unpaid leave.  Employees have to take four days by the end of March and three days each in the two subsequent fiscal quarters. I guess if you look at the glass as half full at least these folks are keeping their jobs.  For now.

Any suggestions for what these folks should do with their involuntary, unpaid "vacation"?  BTW, I've used quotes around the word vacation ever since my wife returned to work from maternity leave and received a heap of abuse from her boss who said she should be well rested from her "vacation".  In all seriousness I have some friends that work at the Journal and this stinks for them, but I am glad to know that they still have their jobs. 

Don’t Sell Me a Recession

So, raise your hand if you aren't aware that we're in the midst of a recession of epic scale.  If you raised your hand then please let me know what cave you've been living in so I can move there with my family.  My point is that we all know there's a recession on and we're not likely to forget any time soon.

I confess to a morbid fascination myself, as is abundantly evidenced by my posts about the economy, real estate, etc.  I've watched with fascination as people started pointing fingers at each other in blame.  "It's the bankers' fault" some say.  Others blame homeowners, the media, the government, the…well, almost everyone.  Basically the recession is the most significant event since at least since 9/11 and it has had arguably a greater impact on our daily lives than any event for a couple of generations.  As much as we'd like to we can't escape it.

All this has me wondering: why is every company out there playing off the recession to sell their services.  Many seem to be using gimicky plays on the 'stimulus plan', as in "Come shop at ACME shoe store and take advantage of our toe stimulus plan!"  Or they come across with messages like "We know times are tough, that your budget's tight, so we're offering deep, deep discounts on…"  My problem with this approach is:
  • I hear enough about the recession on the news, at the water cooler, etc.  I don't need to be reminded of it by every merchant out there.
  • How is it effective marketing to remind me that I'm broke as you try to sell me your discounted wares?  The reality is that if I'm broke and if your product isn't a staple (milk, bread, eggs, Nintendo Wii) then I'm not going to be swayed by your discount.  In effect your discount is going to woo people who have money and still have their jobs so why create a negative association with the recession? 
  • If everyone else is doing it how are you separating yourself from the herd? 

My advice?  Go back to the basics and play up your strengths.  Better quality, better service, customers are treated like family, etc.  Unless you're Wal-Mart the likelihood that you'll win on price is pretty low, and who really wants to be known as the cheapest shop in town?

So merchants of the Piedmont Triad please, please, please do me a favor.  Don't sell me a recession, sell me what you've got.

2 for 1 at Carolina Kia

If you live in the Triad you've probably seen the Caaaaar-o-lina Kia commercials.  Well, according to Ben they're running a commercial offering a 2-for-1 deal; if you buy a Sorrento or Sedona you'll get a Rio for free except for taxes and tags.  As Ben mentions there's nothing about it on their website, so I can't point to details, but if you're in the market for a car you might want to make your way to High Point to give them a look-see.