Category Archives: Current Affairs

Have Your Say in the $3 Trillion Spending Spree

The Boston Globe has an interview with Elizabeth Warren, the chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel that is overseeing the bailout of America's financial system (thanks to Lex for the pointer).  It's a pretty quick read and if you're at all interested in what's going on with your trillions of dollars in taxpayer subsidies to the financial muckety-mucks then I suggest you read it.  Here's the end of the interview, which I think gives you an idea of the stakes:

Q: Is there anything else that you would want people to understand?
A: I don't have a badge and a gun. The power of this panel is derived entirely from the voice of the American people. If they stay out of the policy debates, then Treasury can spend at will and reshape the American economy with no one in the room but insiders. If they are involved, the policies will look different.
It's the design of the rules going forward that will tell us or that will determine whether we are moving to a cyclical economy with high wealth, high risk, and crashes every 10 to 15 years. Or whether we will emerge, as we did following the new regulatory reforms in the Great Depression, with a more stable economic system that benefits people across the economic spectrum. It's an amazing moment in history.

American Idiots

Found this via Ed Cone: Kevin Phillips doesn't think the average American can grasp the scope of our financial disaster, and because of that we're doomed to be continually led down the path of financial cornholery by the same abusers who have taken us this far.  Have to say I probably agree, and when you read Phillips' post you might too.

The principal inventors, hustlers , borrowers and culprits were the nation's 15-20 largest and best known financial institutions – including the ones that keep making headlines by demanding more bail-out money from Washington and giving huge bonuses. These same institutions got much of the early bail-out money and as of December 2008 they accounted for over half of the bad assets written off. The reason these needed so much money is that they government had let them merge, speculate, expand and experiment on dimensions beyond all logic. That is why the complicit politicians and regulators have to talk about $100 billion here and $1 trillion there even while they pretend that it's all under control and that the run-amok financial sector remains sound.

This is a much grander-scale disaster than anything that happened in 1929-33. Worse, it dwarfs the abuses of debt, finance and financialization that brought down previous leading world economic powers like Britain and Holland (back when New York was New Amsterdam). I will return to these little-mentioned precedents in another post this week.

But for the moment, let me underscore: the average American knows little of the dimensions of the financial sector aggrandizement and misbehavior involved. Until this is remedied, there probably will not be enough informed, focused indignation to achieve far-reaching reform in the teeth of financial sector money and influence. Equivocation will triumph. This will not displease politicians and regulators leery of offending their contributors and backers.

Obama Turning Into a Skid or Accelerating Into a Concrete Wall?

Penn Jillette writes a commentary piece that asks the right questions about our current straits in his own quirky way.  It comes down to this: is spending our way out of the recession/depression a counterintuitive necessity like turning into a skid on an icy road, or is it a suicidal decision like accelerating your car as you approach an oncoming reinforced concrete wall?

So About Those Out of Network Charges

If you've visited a doctor that was outside your insurance company's network you may want to look into how much they charged.  From an Associated Press article about health insurance companies being investigated and hit with fines:

Rockefeller and other congressmen, along with doctors and consumer groups, say that more accountability and transparency are needed in how insurance companies determine out-of-network rates, and that patients need to understand how it's done to avoid sticker shock when they get their medical bills.Typically, health plans will pay a set percentage, say 70 percent, for an out-of-network visit.

But unknown to many consumers, when patients go out of network, their plan doesn't actually pay 70 percent of the doctor's visit cost. It pays 70 percent of what it determines is the "usual, customary and reasonable" cost for the procedure or doctor's visit in question.

Insurance companies determine that cost themselves or use figures from a database of their choosing, and there's scant regulation or oversight of how they do it.

Don't you love it?  This is akin to me saying to you, "Hey look, if you pay me $50 a month I'll agree to pay for 90% of any repair you need to have to your car as long as you take it to one of the following garages.  But if you're stuck on the road and need to use another garage I'll pay 70% of what I think are reasonable charges.  Now I have this wonderful database of what is reasonable to charge for any car repair so don't you worry about it."  Then when you get the oil changed at a garage outside the network and they charge you $25 but my database tells me a reasonable price is $5 then I'll pay 70% of the $5 bill and stick you with the rest.  But here's the kicker: I won't ever tell you what my "reasonable" rates are so you'll just have to live with it and when you're stuck on the road you'll just have to hope and pray that the nearest garage's rates are within shouting distance of my "reasonable" rates.

Nice racket, huh? 

Layoffs = No Insurance or Crappy Insurance

News that should surprise no one: North Carolina has the fastest growing population of people without health insurance.  Since North Carolina is also a leader in lost jobs this isn't exactly shocking news.  The report referenced in the story contains an estimate of 1.75 million people in the state who don't have health insurance.  The US Census shows North Carolina's population in 2007 as 9,061,032 so that means that the percentage of people in North Carolina without health insurance is roughly 19%.  

As scary a number as 19% is, I'm wondering how many of the other 81% are under-insured?  I can tell you from first hand experience that it's very expensive to buy insurance that offers decent coverage and I suspect that there are plenty of people who have purchased what can only be termed "crappy" insurance in order to keep their premiums affordable.  Having purchased some crappy insurance myself in an effort to battle premiums that jumped 30% one year I can tell you what the results were:
  • Our insurer basically disputed every claim.
  • Our riders that were supposed to provide a certain number of office visits at no additional cost basically did nothing.  We still ended up paying out of pocket. 
  • Our coverage was almost impossible to understand which means we started avoiding the doctor for fear that it would cost us $120 to find out one of us had a simple soar throat. 
  • Luckily we didn't experience any major illnesses, but if we'd kept that coverage I think we might have ended up with undiagnosed illnesses because we tried to avoid the doctor.  

Basically we started to view our insurance as "armageddon coverage", only to be used in case of a catastrophe and I'm not entirely confident it would have covered us even in those circumstances.  My point is that if even 10% of the 81% of insured North Carolinians has similar coverage then we're probably looking at close to 700,000 people that could be living with easily treatable illnesses that could grow into major health crises because they're afraid to see the doctor and who might not then be covered adequately when they end up in the hospital.  Add that to the 1.75 million people without any insurance and you have a really frightening number of people at risk for financial devastation if they get sick.

More Pie-Eyed Optimism

A couple of days ago I wrote about my hope that due to a decrease in foreclosure rates here in North Carolina we are actually a leading indicator that the nation's economy has hit bottom.  My friend Dan called me a pie-eyed optimist as a result.  I did temper my post with the news that home sales in Greensboro were down 38% in February from same month sales the year before, so I wasn't real shocked when I read today that Winston-Salem's home sales in February were down 30% from the year before.  Average home prices were also down, but given the number of foreclosures on the market that's not exactly a shock either.

So, am I still standing with my pie-eyed optimism?  Why yes I am.  My hope is that:
  • Foreclosures have peaked 
  • Our glutted housing inventory will start to clear 
  • House prices will stabilize (normalize)   
  • By some miracle the government's plan for the banks works (longest shot of all) and even if it doesn't that the "free markets" actually work the way they're supposed to and that we get through the painful period sooner rather than later.  
  • By some miracle the financial industry learns its lesson and starts acting like, well, like what we used to think bankers acted like. 
  • Americans continue with their newly-found frugality, but at the same time begin to emerge from their monastic existence of the last six months and begin to buy things within reason (and their budgets).
  • American companies begin hiring people once their businesses have stabilized and that the companies subsequently treat their employees well and perhaps think about spending a little less on executive "talent" and a little more on employee and customer satisfaction.
  • By some miracle I can retire before the age of 97 and live in a society where my grandchildren at least have the same standard of living that their great-grandparents and grandparents enjoyed.  Asking for them to have a better standard might be a bit much at this point.

Foreclosures from the Feed Reader

One of the Google Alerts I have set up is "forsyth county nc" and it regularly sends some interesting items to my Google Reader.  For instance I get lots of links from a site called bankforeclosuressale.com that include the addresses of houses listed in their database as being in foreclosure. Here's this morning's sampling:

You'll notice when you visit the different pages that the addresses don't show up on the pages unless you register for the site.  I don't want to register for the site so luckily for me the addresses show up in the feed so I don't have to.  The glum part of this is that these are houses that people have lost, but on the brighter side I'm seeing fewer of these in my reader these days than I was a while back.  Hopefully that's a trend that will continue.

Friends in the Right Places

Apparently insider lending is common practice at banks, with banks regularly giving loans to executives and directors.  Okay, it's not really a shock that muckety-mucks in banks would have special access but when you read this article in the Charlotte Observer it becomes apparent that the insider dealing went to pretty high extremes at North Carolina's own Bank of America and Wachovia.

Charlotte's two big banking names are among the biggest insider lenders.

At Bank of America, those loans more than doubled last year, to $624 million – the biggest dollar jump in the country. The largest of them likely went to three directors or their companies. The surge came during the third quarter as credit markets froze, the government prepared to infuse banks with billions in tax dollars and the board approved the purchase of troubled Merrill Lynch.

Wachovia ended 2008 with $747 million of insider loans, second only to the much larger JPMorgan. All of the loans were held by Wachovia directors or their companies, with just five holding the largest. Last year, the company had to sell itself amid staggering losses in part due to a 2006 deal.

According to the article the lending at BofA really accelerated in 2008 at a time when the credit markets crashed and when the bank was the recipient of a rather large government bailout.  I'm thinking that the bank's directors were VERY happy to have their seats last year.

The article also points out that the loans are highly regulated, that the terms of the loans must be identical to those available to non-insiders and that mega-banks like BofA have government regulators on site.  That's all well and good, but I'd imagine that an insider would have a very big advantage in actually getting a loan compared to someone coming in off the street and that's exactly the kind of perception that's causing the financial industry to have a public image worse than ambulance chasing lawyers or even politicians. 

Of course we wouldn't be paying too much attention to the bonuses if the banks were doing well, but since they're struggling the insider deals look even worse.  The most recent issue of Fortune has a grim article titled "Will the banks survive?" that points out that on February 20 BofA stocks were trading at less than $3 per share and Citigroup's at less than $2 per share which means their combined market cap was less than Kraft foods.  Oh, and it points out that the trouble has just begun for the banks:

How can it be that the banks are tottering after the government fortified them with hundreds of billions in bailout cash and guarantees on their troubled assets? For the past 18 months, the banks' problems with toxic securities, especially collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and other exotic products that packaged subprime mortgages, attracted most of the attention – and alarm. Now the storm is entering an entirely new phase that's potentially even more dangerous: a historic meltdown in the bread-and-butter businesses of credit card, home-equity, and mortgage lending.

The scale of potential losses in consumer and business loans swamps what's left from the securities debacle by a factor of three or four to one. And the next wave, the looming defaults on commercial real estate loans financing the likes of half-leased retail malls, will soon cause a fresh round of pain. "We've now moved from the securities phase to the lending phase of the banking crisis," says Tanya Azarchs, a managing director in S&P's financial services ratings group. "For 2009 we expect that loan losses will be much worse than for 2008 and that securities write-downs will be much less."

Ouch.

A Familiar Refrain

At the end of a Bloomberg article on the increase in commercial credit defaults that banks are seeing you'll find this gem:

Most troubled commercial properties have loans that are either syndicated or packaged into securities and sold to investors, and aren’t owned by a single lender. One Riverwalk Place, an 18-story office building in San Antonio, defaulted this year, as did Riviera Holdings Corp., a Las Vegas-based casino owner. Neither loan is owned by a single lender.

Banks, like real estate developers, sold off most of the riskiest debt, said Dan Fasulo, a London-based managing director at Real Capital Analytics.

β€œThey keep the good deals for themselves, and they do the riskier, shadier stuff with a partner,” Fasulo said. β€œWhat are you going to do with the bad stuff? You’re going to try to syndicate it privately.”

Sound familiar?