Monthly Archives: September 2008

Germans Bomb Pearl Harbor!

The Greensboro News & Record had a boo-boo of magnificent proportions today. They had a huge headline on the front page about the government’s $85 billion loan to AIG. I mean huge like “Japanese Bomb Pearl Harbor” huge. Problem is that instead of $85 billion the headline said $85 million. To continue with my comparison that would be like them channeling John Belushi and running a headline that said “Germans Bomb Pearl Harbor.”

Their editor John Robinson wants to go back to bed (http://tinyurl.com/6rjqob) and Ed Cone has an image of the page at http://edcone.typepad.com/wordup/2008/09/best-read-in-dr.html Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry

Loving Analogies

I love analogies, especially when it comes to understanding complex things that I just don’t get.  Yesterday I had the pleasure of sitting in on a presentation given by James Anderson, the President of SVB Analytics.  He was giving a presentation on the US economy to a group of fairly senior business executives and he really did give an engaging, at times humorous, and very informative presentation.  Here are two take aways that I enjoyed particular, and please note that I’m paraphrasing him.

America’s role in the world economy: Think of the world economy as a reality show set on an island with five players on a team. One player is tasked with building shelter, another with hunting food, another with starting a fire and the third with providing drinking water.  Those four are countries like China and India.  America is the fifth player and its job is to eat, and it has done its job very well but now the other members are ready to vote it off the island.

Credit default swaps: Think of the market as a $1 million Texas Hold ‘Em game being held in a Vegas casino with a room full of spectators.  All of the spectators start placing side bets on which player will win, and eventually the amount of money in the side betting is $70 million vs. the $1 million that’s at stake in the actual game.  Credit default swaps are the side bets.  Now compare this description to the definition of credit default swaps on Wikipedia:

A credit default swap (CDS) is a credit derivative contract between two counterparties, whereby the "buyer" or "fixed rate payer" pays periodic payments to the "seller" or "floating rate payer" in exchange for the right to a payoff if there is a default[1] or "credit event" in respect of a third party or "reference entity".

If a credit event occurs, the typical contract either settles by delivery by the buyer to the seller of a (usually defaulted) debt obligation of the reference entity against a payment by the seller of the par value ("physical settlement") or the seller pays the buyer the difference between the par value and the market price of a specified debt obligation, typically determined in an auction ("cash settlement").

A credit default swap resembles an insurance policy, as it can be used by a debt holder to hedge, or insure against a default under the debt instrument. However, because there is no requirement to actually hold any asset or suffer a loss, a credit default swap can also be used for speculative purposes and is not generally considered insurance for regulatory purposes.

See what I mean?

Left Coast Perspective

I’ve been in San Francisco since Sunday and it has been interesting seeing how news breaks here versus back east.  For instance all the news about the Wall Street meltdown has had a kind of muted feel here, but I don’t think it’s because people here are any less worried or affected.  Rather, I think that because the financial market is already a couple of hours into its day when everyone here is starting to pay attention the east-based media has had time to calm down and get through its initial breathlessness.  Not that they seem any smarter or deeper from here, but that panic-tinged tone just isn’t as evident.

It’s also interesting to realize exactly how New York-centric our news still is, and from out here it’s really kind of annoying.  I have CNBC on right now (BTW, Dow is down 287 points at this point) and their "perspective" from the west coast came from a Hollywood reporter and focused on how advertisers will move to TV from print.  WTF?  I mean I’m sitting just down the road from Silicon Valley and I’m wondering why they wouldn’t look into the effect the market shake up is having on the tech sector.  Hollywood?

And the whole kerfluffle about McCain’s comment yesterday that the economic fundamentals are strong was kind of fun to watch from here.  While I was getting ready in my room yesterday morning I had the Today show on and they were playing McCain’s interview with Matt Lauer at just after 7:00 PDT.  Well, as I listened to his wan performance (it really was bad) and his incredibly lame explanation that what he meant was that America’s workers are the fundamental strength of the American economy, I realized that McCain had uttered those words three hours earlier during a live 7:00 a.m EDT interview and I started wondering what kind of spin his people had come up with in the ensuing three hours since he’d laid that stinker of an interview on his campaign.  It really hit home that out here news kind of hits with a time delay, and it’s much like us east coasters watching news out of Europe.  It just doesn’t seem so urgent or Chicken Little-ish, and I think that’s a good thing.

Maybe all this helps explain why everyone here seems so laid back.

Meet the Tortoise

Dana Blankenhorn calls Charles Schwab the new kings of Wall Street:

The value of Schwab stock is practically unchanged since the start of the year. (I don’t own any but I do keep my money there.) In the present environment this is an immense achievement.

Schwab himself finally retired recently at age 70, for the second time. Hopefully the new guy, Walter Bettinger, whose former retirement planning outfit was acquired by Schwab in 1995, has learned the lessons and will stick to his knitting.

The reason you won’t hear about this on CNBC is precisely why Schwab is so strong. As with Seinfeld, this is a story about nothing.

Schwab doesn’t play with its customers’ money. It offers a selection of mutual funds, mostly index funds, and invests customer cash conservatively. It offers advice, but that advice is simply to diversify. It doesn’t make extra money if you take its advice, and it doesn’t make more if you don’t.

I like to call Schwab my "bookie" and that’s a pretty good description of the business model. Schwab doesn’t have a horse in the race. Schwab gets its vig no matter who wins.

Attack of the Costco Crabs

P7070281 Last week our family had two birthdays so on Saturday we went over to Costco and splurged on some (really good) crab legs for our combined birthday dinner.  Yuuu-uuu-mmmy.  I highly recommend them.

Not cheap, but not as expensive as going out.  And since I was flying out to California the next day i really wasn’t in the mood for going out.  Truth be told I had to pack, since I never manage to do that ahead of time.

Room With a View

Here are some pics taken from my room at the Parc 55 in San Francisco.  I might have crappy internet access but the view’s pretty sweet.  I’ve also included a pic of a funny car I saw on the way to dinner last night.

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$12.95 for 24 Hours of Crap

I’m in San Francisco on business and I’m staying in the Parc 55 hotel.  They charge for internet access here and it’s $12.95 per 24 hours, whether it’s wireless or wired.  Okay, I’ve been robbed for internet access by hotels before but generally the connection works better than dial-up.  Not so here.  I’m (internet) partying like it’s 1999.

Nissen House Probably Saved

The Nissen House in Lewisville is probably going to be saved from the wrecking ball because the Lewisville Town Council voted to loan the Lewisville Historical Society $2 for every $1 they raise.  The Nissen House was purchased by two dentists who were going to raze it and put a modern building for their practice on the site. They’ve agreed to give the house to the Historical Society if it will move the house to a new location.

This is the second time the house has been sold in the last few years.  Celeste and I actually did a walk through a few years ago and considered trying to cobble together a deal where we would buy it and convert it to a combination reading room and tea/coffee shop/bakery.  Apparently the house was used as a bakery years ago.  We decided against it because it would have taken quite a bit of money to get it up to code for such an operation and being relatively new to the area we decided that it was a little rash to take on a project like that at the time. We might have been able to do it if we’d recruited some investors, but we weren’t interested in doing that either.

Someone else ended up buying the property and cleaning it up a bit, but he didn’t seem to have an overall plan for it and ended up selling it to the dentists. If the Historical Society does go for the loan deal then it looks like the town will have a new attraction in a couple of years.