Will Winston-Salem, Greensboro and High Point Punch Above Their Weight?

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An interesting piece in Foreign Policy makes the case that "middleweight" cities, those with populations between 150,000 and 10 million people, will drive the economic recovery in the U.S.:

It is America's large cities, and particularly the broad swath of middleweights, that will be the key to the U.S. recovery and a key contributor to global growth in the next 15 years. Large cities in the United States will contribute more to global growth than the large cities of all other developed countries combined. We expect the collective GDP of these large U.S. cities to rise by almost $5.7 trillion — generating more than 10 percent of global GDP growth — by 2025. While New York and Los Angeles together are expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.1 percent between 2010 and 2025, the top 30 middleweights (measured by GDP) are expected to outpace them with a growth rate of 2.6 percent.

What is behind the clout of middleweights in the United States? For a start, there are simply more of them than in other developed regions. Of more than 600 middleweight cities around the developed world, the United States is home to 257 of them…

For cities like our three here in the Triad, there's no magic formula for reinvention or reinvigoration:

While slowing population growth and mobility will make it harder for U.S. cities to sustain rapid population growth rates, cities that want to grow their GDP will need to pay attention to attracting and supporting expanding populations. Many observers argue that it is the mix of local industries in a city that determines its ability to grow. This is true — but to a much lesser extent than often assumed. Our analysis suggests that the mix of sectors explains only about one-third of the above-average growth of America's most rapidly growing cities. (Emphasis mine).

Even when narrowing our focus to the strongest performing cities, again there is no single path to success — no unique blueprint that all urban leaders should pursue. The cities that outperform their peers simply find ways to make the most of the economic opportunities they face, get lucky, or both. Some cities have been able to reinvent themselves; many others make the most of their endowments or their location.

This is sobering news for those folks working in economic development. The Triad's cities have been forced to reinvent themselves thanks to the rapid decline of their traditional industries – tobacco, textiles and furniture – and they seem to have started to find their footing with industries like biotech, nanotech, logistics, etc. That's the good news, but this study makes the point that the effect of the growth in these sectors will be muted if they aren't accompanied by an influx of people. It seems like a bit of a "chicken and egg" thing to me – you need good jobs to attract people, and you need good people to attract good jobs – but as the authors point out there's also a need for a bit of good luck to be in the mix and maybe that's what turns the egg into a chicken.

The Triad's good fortune might be found at the end of the article:

But the landscape is moving. For example, the shift in the global economic balance to rising emerging nations favors urban centers that are well connected to global growth hubs. Cities with airport hubs and ports, business connections (such as electronics value chains), or personal connections (with universities that attract foreign students) will be in a better position to take advantage of the growing emerging market opportunity.

Granted PTI is not an airport hub, but we're right next door to one and our other transportation infrastructure is critical to the east coast. We're also home to lots of universities and large corporations that draw people from around the world. All things considered I like the Triad's chances.

When the Poop Really Flies in Washington

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This story of exploding toilets that injured two GSA employees in Washington is perfect on so many metaphorical levels that I just can't think of anything to add:

As Supervisory Property Manager Chris Litsey tells it, he responded to an emergency call from a restroom to find a nurse on the scene treating someone injured “by the fragment of a broken toilet bowl.”

“People on site told us that the toilet ‘exploded,’” the manager wrote. “We found at the time that the waterlines to toilets in that restroom were dry and flushing the toilets created a loud and startling sound, and also ejected the remaining water from the bowl.”

As the manager finished surveying the scene, another call came in for a person injured by a toilet on a separate floor. Litsey put out an announcement that the restrooms had closed and purged the system of compressed air that had been flowing into the building’s water tank.

Several other toilets were found damaged while Litsey and staff corrected the issues. The next day, as news reports circulated, Litsey’s theory was that someone had turned the compressor on manually and “left it unattended.”

Tax Expenditures – A Celebratory Post for CPA Liberation Day

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In celebration of CPA Liberation Day I bring you a link to a column by two professors at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School about how we might think differently about tax deductions if we (properly) identified them as government spending:

Here’s a way to see through the fog. Instead of looking at all the breaks for mortgage interest, health care, retirement savings and so on as deductions, picture the government writing you a check for each item. This equivalence between tax deductions and government spending leads economists to call them “tax expenditures.” Reformers have hit on an even more pointed description: spending through the tax code.

The tax system is also equivalent to a collection of individual mandates, like the one in the Obama health-care law, with penalties for Americans who fail to buy insurance. For many people, that’s how our system works. You and your neighbor might have the same income, but if, unlike your neighbor, you fail to have a mortgage or buy as much health insurance, then you have to pay higher taxes…

Here’s our proposal: Let’s replace all tax expenditures with explicit subsidies — that is, with actual federal payments — so we can really see the costs and debate all spending programs on an equal footing. Doing so would help us answer crucial questions, such as whether we get more bang for our buck by subsidizing homeownership or by spending more on schools.

There’s one more payoff to getting rid of the myriad breaks hidden in our byzantine tax code: It will be a lot easier to get your taxes done before midnight.

Sharing the Road in Lewisville

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Anyone who lives in Lewisville, NC knows that our town is a pretty popular destination for cyclists. I'll often hear grumbling about the inconvenience of having to wait behind large packs of riders, aka pelotons, on some of the beautiful country roads that make the town such an inviting place to live and bike. I don't hear many complaints about individual riders, or groups of two or three, but that's because they're relatively easy to pass even on our two lane roads with no shoulders.

All that being said I've also seen some crazy decisions made by impatient drivers. Passing just before a blind curve, passing on a rise with oncoming traffic too close for comfort, passing too close to the actual cyclist, etc. Part of me understands the frustration – most of us aren't cyclists and thus don't understand the draw of riding on roads when you could just toddle on down to Salem Lake or Muddy Creek and ride on trails without inconveniencing drivers – and I especially feel the frustration myself when I'm running late for something and am stuck behind a bunch of cyclists. But you know what? We need to get over it.

Here's the deal: just because most of us aren't cyclists and don't understand the draw of riding on our roads, there are obviously people who love it and that's their right. And "right" is the correct word because unless the laws change cyclists have as much of a right to the road as drivers of cars and motorcycles. Sure they need to follow the rules just like we drivers do, and I'm sure that some of them roll through red lights or do rolling stops at stop signs, but I'm also pretty sure that the same percentage or more of drivers do the same thing, and I'm absolutely positive that almost every driver in Lewisville has pulled a (technically) illegal passing maneuver on a cyclist.

Why am I bringing this up now? Because I just read this article about a Winston-Salem cyclist killed in an accident in Greensboro, and although it sounds like there might have been mitigating circumstances (blinding sun) it still reminded me that I'm in constant fear of seeing this kind of story in Lewisville. Whether we see our visiting cyclists as a blessing or a curse we need to respect their right to the road, and do everything we can to make sure we all share the road safely.

On a related, but different note: I think a nice little entrepreneurial venture would be opening a temporary refreshment stand near Shallowford Square. (Think hotdog stand with healthy stuff instead of hotdogs, chips and sodas).  The cyclists tend to park downtown and launch their rides from there so I'd imagine they'd be willing customers once they're rides are done. There are also lots of folks who walk and jog downtown these days so I'd imagine they'd be a good market too. That's assuming you can get a permit from the town to do it, but it might be worth a try.

Girls and Math

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With a daughter who is interested in studying engineering in college (she's a high school senior), and seeing the reactions on peoples' faces when Erin tells them that she's leaning towards that field of study, I have to say I'm not surprised to see this piece about teachers' biases about girls' math skills. I'm also afraid that this quote may be more true than not:

“If the math bias against females is present in elementary school, which past research shows it is, and continues through high school and then college, then it’s much less likely that you will find women pursuing math-related high-status occupations in science and technology,” says Riegle-Crumb. “If you perceive the message ‘You’re just not quite as good at math as the boys are’ often enough, you may start to believe it.” 

Erin applied to several schools, including Embry Riddle and NC State, and thankfully she was accepted to both. If you're not familiar with it, Embry Riddle is a school that defines itself as an "Aeronautical University" so it's degree programs are all heavily dedicated to aeronautics (engineering, physics, math, etc.). Not many people are familiar with Embry Riddle so when Erin would explain it to them their looks of surprise were even more pronounced than when she mentioned she had applied to State.

Personally, I think people just assume girls prefer, and are more suited to the humanities, and that engineering and math are boys' playgrounds. Unfortunately if Erin stays on the course she's chosen – and let's remember that there are plenty of kids who change their majors mid-stream – I think she'll be fighting this kind of bias for the rest of her academic and professional careers. It's a shame that might be the case, but you can bet we'll be supporting her the whole way – if people want to assume something based on her gender then that's their problem.

By the way, as parents we're thrilled that Erin opted for State. Not that we don't think she would have done well at Embry Riddle, we just thought that the wider variety of programs at State would allow her the maximum flexibility to explore all fields of study and make whatever choice best suits her. And then there's the not-so-small issue of distance and we LOVE the fact that she'll only be a two hour drive away. Of course if she still wants to go into the field aeronautics she can always go to Embry Riddle for graduate level studies, and I fully expect she'll be able to do anything she sets her mind to, because as most mature men know, women rule. 

Finding Your Voice

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Fred Wilson is definitely a top-shelf business blogger, if not the best. He started his blog AVC when he was 42, and he does a great job in this post in explaining how it helped him find his voice for the first time (and how his wife's blog did the same for her). An excerpt is provided below, but I think it's important to point out that you could replace "blog" with "newsletter", or "Facebook profile", "YouTube video",or "LinkedIn post", or any other form of communication and make the same point – the important thing is to find whatever it is that gives your voice an outlet:

Everyone has something to say, something to contribute, everyone can make a difference. And I believe the Internet is making it easier for all of us to find that voice, use it, and make that difference.

I am supporting evidence item number one in this case. I was 42 years old when I started blogging. I'd always had a lot to say. Just ask my mom about that. But I never really found the place and the way to get it all out. AVC became that thing and now I've got a platform to make a difference. I hope I'm using it well.

I have watched so many people find their voice on the Internet over the years and it warms my heart when they nail it. It happens all the time in the blog comments here at AVC. I'm not going to name names but you all know the stories and who they are.

Americans Elect Gets on the NC Ballot

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This is an update to a February 19 post (Presidential Election 2.0) in which I wrote about a group called Americans Elect which described itself as: 

a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that is not affiliated with any political party, ideology or candidate. It is funded exclusively by individual contributions—and not from corporate, labor, special interest, foreign, or lobbyist sources. And we intend to repay our initial financing so that no single individual will have contributed more than $10K.

Ultimately, Americans Elect is the first nominating process that will be led directly by voters like YOU…

THE GOAL OF AMERICANS ELECT is to nominate a presidential ticket that answers directly to voters—not the political system.

According to the Raleigh News & Observer they've been successful in getting on the ballot in North Carolina and 20 other states so far for the 2012 election. This could get pretty interesting.

Freewheeling Hippies vs. Button Down Managers

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Some behavioral scientists studied the "top 155 political blogs" during the 2008 election year and compared the liberal and conservative blogs. From their abstract we learn:

Notably, the authors find evidence of an association between ideological affiliation and the technologies, institutions, and practices of participation. Blogs on the left adopt different, and more participatory, technical platforms, comprise significantly fewer sole-authored sites, include user blogs, maintain more fluid boundaries between secondary and primary content, include longer narrative and discussion posts, and (among the top half of the blogs in the sample) more often use blogs as platforms for mobilization…

The practices of the left are more consistent with the prediction that the networked public sphere offers new pathways for discursive participation by a wider array of individuals, whereas the practices of the right suggest that a small group of elites may retain more exclusive agenda-setting authority online. (Emphasis mine)

Gee, I'm just shocked that liberal blogs would be wordier and less centrally controlled than conservative blogs, or that conservatives would maintain a more hierarchical structure. I also like the term "more fluid boundaries between secondary and primary content"; I might use that in the future. As for the liberal blogs using the platform more for mobilization I think it's important that we remember this is a study of 2008's election in which it was pretty clear that Obama's team, and by extension the liberal online universe, cleaned everybody's clock. Since then the opposite side has played a great game of catchup as evidenced by the mid-term election in 2010 and I think this year's going to be much more of a horse race.