Wells Fargo economists say that the economy is improving (h/t to Ed Cone for the link), but that North Carolina has a very long slog in front of it in terms of job creation. No surprise to anyone who's been paying attention, but interesting just the same:
North Carolina, which had become accustomed to outperforming the national economy, has underperformed the nation for much of the past decade. The unemployment rate, which had remained comfortably below the national unemployment rate from 1975 to 2000, has been at or above the national rate for the past decade. Moreover, job growth has been seriously lacking and nonfarm employment is actually lower today than it was at the tail end of the long 1990s business expansion…
North Carolina’s economy also appears to be on the mend, although a surprisingly weak employment number for the month of November has raised some questions as to how much conditions have actually improved. Private sector payrolls had increased in 8 of the first 10 months of 2010, before plunging by a nation’s worst 11,500 jobs in November. On a year-to-date basis, private sector jobs are now roughly even with where they were one year ago, which is well off the 35,000 jobs we expected to be added this year…
North Carolina is also facing more structural issues than the nation is. Not only is the state still reeling from the aftermath of the housing boom, which has weighed on employment in construction and financial services, but it is also dealing with the ongoing restructuring of its industrial base. Manufacturers have eliminated 318,000 jobs across North Carolina over the past decade, with many of the losses occurring in the state’s smaller metropolitan and rural areas. When financial services, technology, tourism and construction were booming, many of these displaced workers could be absorbed in other jobs in the Triangle or Charlotte. Today, however, these industries are growing more slowly and displaced workers are remaining unemployed for longer periods of time…
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