I’m no fan of my Congresswoman Virginia Foxx, but I’ve pretty much resigned myself to the fact that I live in a Congressional district that would probably throw a parade for Vladimir Putin before it would elect a Democrat.  Well, I might be wrong.  Here’s an interesting post at BlueNC by Frank Eaton in which he points to a poll that shows Foxx leading Democratic opponent Roy Carter by a mere 48-46 in a Public Policy Polling (PPP) poll. He writes the following:

The PPP’s own poll showed a ten point spread (51-41) back in July.
But now, at the start of the true fall campaign, with multiple daily
events across the district, introductory ads on TV and an increasingly
attentive media, people are beginning to understand that there’s
somebody running against Virginia Foxx in the 5th district. His name is
Roy Carter, a fiery mountain populist with a long record of service to
5th district families and their children. This guy could win!

Sometimes it takes the word a while to get to Washington, especially
when it’s coming from a largely rural, inaccurately studied district
like NC-05, which the party structure has habitually forsaken since
redistricting. But listen up: ROY CARTER IS WINNING THIS RACE DOWN
HERE. And he’ll continue to win this race until Virginia Foxx opens up
her war chest and starts running those crappy $150,000 TV ads in steady
rotation on Fox News here in the district.

SHE CAN BE STOPPED FOR VERY LITTLE MONEY. All that’s standing
between North Carolina and an easy Democratic pick-up in the Congress
is this continued reticence on the part of the Democratic
leadership–at both the state and national levels–to look at the true
dynamics of the race:

-Soft support for Virginia Foxx among republican and unaffiliated
voters indicated by low approval ratings for her and the current
administration.

-increased consciousness of the economic realities in the district and a desire for change.

-A compelling Democratic challenger who is overseeing an energized, creative, dynamic campaign.

Even though Eaton is not an objective source I think he makes some pretty good points.  Foxx is closely aligned with Bush and hence vulnerable to negative association.  I’m sure she has a stranglehold on the hard core Republicans in her district, but Carter presents a problem for her with centrists because he’s not perceived as some sort of "intellectual elite" or "tree hugger" Democrat.  He has a lot of qualities that residents of this meat and potatoes district are attracted to, and he won’t be easily dismissed with the usual "liberal elite" smear campaigns.

On the other hand Eaton’s also right that Foxx has a deep war chest and when she starts opening up the media campaigns Carter could be thumped if he doesn’t get similar air time, which means he needs a financial boost from somewhere. 

Hat tip to Ed Cone for the lead.