Wisdom of Crowds?

Here’s a story that helps point out the danger of vigilante justice: a New York city cab driver lost control of his car and hit an 8-year old kid riding a bike.  A crowd of onlookers pulled the driver from his car and proceeded to beat him silly until he managed to tell them that he lost control of his car because his passenger smacked him in the head with a metal bar in an attempt to rob him.  That’s when the mob turned on the passenger and started beating him and tightened a belt around his neck thus becoming a form of lynch mob.  The police eventually arrived and arrested the passenger and got the driver and the boy to the hospital.  There’s no mention of anything happening to the members of the crowd who took justice into their own hands.

Sen. Stevens Should Fire the Aid that Prepped Him for This

Sen. Ted Stevens of Alaska, the champion of the "Bridge to Nowhere," got up in front of God and country to defend his stance on the telecommunications bill working its way through Congress.  Here’s a brief excerpt from Wired:

I just the other day got, an internet was sent by my staff at 10
o’clock in the morning on Friday and I just got it yesterday. Why?

Because it got tangled up with all these things going on the internet commercially…

They want to deliver vast amounts of information over the internet. And
again, the internet is not something you just dump something on. It’s
not a truck.

It’s a series of tubes.

And if you don’t
understand those tubes can be filled and if they are filled, when you put your message in, it gets in line and its going to be delayed by
anyone that puts into that tube enormous amounts of material, enormous
amounts of material.

Huh?  Seriously, if the Senator doesn’t mind coming off looking like a dumbass then he’s fine, but if he does mind then he ought to fire whoever got him ready for this appearance.  No one expects him to understand all the technical nuances of the internet, but he should at least know the difference between "email’ and "internet".

Continued Justification for My Own Ignorance Fast Disappearing

One of the great things about the "Internet Age" is the wealth of information that’s out there for free to anyone who’s looking for it, and one of the great tragedies of the "Internet Age" is that I have many fewer excuses for my own ignorance.  Basically the only remaining explanation for my ignorance is my own lazy-ass habits.  Exhibit A in support of this finding is this:

Dartmouth University has made the textbook Introduction to Probability available for free on its website.  I’ve often mentioned that I’m mathematically challenged and really I should do something about it, but despite having this resource available to me I don’t feel the least bit tempted to study it.  Why?  Because I suspect it might be hard and for a lazy-ass guy like me that just isn’t gonna cut it.  Now if they come out with a free "Probability for Dummies" we might be in business.

Update: I just checked the preface for the book and it contains the following:

This text is designed for an introductory probability course taken by sophomores, juniors, and seniors in mathematics, the physical and social sciences, engineering, and computer science. It presents a thorough treatment of probability ideas and techniques necessary for a firm understanding of the subject. The text can be used in a variety of course lengths, levels, and areas of emphasis.

For use in a standard one-term course, in which both discrete and continuous probability is covered, students should have taken as a prerequisite two terms of calculus, including an introduction to multiple integrals. In order to cover Chapter 11, which contains material on Markov chains, some knowledge of matrix theory is necessary.

I don’t think so.

Amtrak’s Future?

Cambodiarail
Cambodia has an interesting rail system that is entrepreneurial to say
the least.  The official rail service is old and decrepit and service
from Battambang (Cambodia’s second city) to Phnom Penh departs just once a week, so entrepreneurs have filled
the gap with homemade bamboo cars propelled by electric motors.  You can read about it here on BBC and here’s an excerpt:

They have created their own rail service using little
more than pieces of bamboo. The locals call the vehicles "noris", or
"lorries", but overseas visitors know them as "bamboo trains".

A tiny electric generator engine provides the power, and
the passenger accommodation is a bamboo platform that rests on top of
two sets of wheels. A dried-grass mat to sit on counts as a luxury.

It would be a white-knuckle ride – if there were actually anything to hold on to.

The bamboo trains reach about 40km/h (25mph), with the
track just a couple of inches below the passengers. Warped and broken
rails make for a bone-shaking journey…

Low fares add to the appeal, but the service is not
without its quirks. There is only one track – so if two trains meet,
the one with the lightest load has to be taken off the rails so the
other can pass.

In Case You Were Wondering Why the US is Running a Deficit

I know it’s peanuts in the grand scheme of things, but I think this article in the Washington Post is indicative of what’s wrong with our government these days.  It’s all about farm subsidies being paid to people who live in sub-divisions built on old farmland.  Here’s an excerpt:

Nationwide, the federal government has paid at least $1.3 billion in subsidies for rice and other crops since 2000 to individuals who do no farming at all, according to an analysis of government records by The Washington Post.

Some of them collect hundreds of thousands of dollars without planting a seed. Mary Anna Hudson, 87, from the River Oaks neighborhood in Houston, has received $191,000 over the past decade. For Houston surgeon Jimmy Frank Howell, the total was $490,709.

"I don’t agree with the government’s policy," said Matthews, who wanted to give the money back but was told it would just go to other landowners. "They give all of this money to landowners who don’t even farm, while real farmers can’t afford to get started. It’s wrong."

The checks to Matthews and other landowners were intended 10 years ago as a first step toward eventually eliminating costly, decades-old farm subsidies. Instead, the payments have grown into an even larger subsidy that benefits millionaire landowners, foreign speculators and absentee landlords, as well as farmers.

Most of the money goes to real farmers who grow crops on their land, but they are under no obligation to grow the crop being subsidized. They can switch to a different crop or raise cattle or even grow a stand of timber — and still get the government payments. The cash comes with so few restrictions that subdivision developers who buy farmland advertise that homeowners can collect farm subsidies on their new back yards.

The payments now account for nearly half of the nation’s expanding agricultural subsidy system, a complex web that has little basis in fairness or efficiency. What began in the 1930s as a limited safety net for working farmers has swollen into a far-flung infrastructure of entitlements that has cost $172 billion over the past decade. In 2005 alone, when pretax farm profits were at a near-record $72 billion, the federal government handed out more than $25 billion in aid, almost 50 percent more than the amount it pays to families receiving welfare.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; both political parties bear responsibility for building our "nanny government" but the Republicans have been getting away with pointing the finger at the Democrats for their support of entitlement programs like welfare.  I’d love to see someone call the Republicans on their support of corporate subsidies like this and watch them squirm.  It kills me that the Republicans’ staunchest supporters are the same people who are being screwed by Republican economic policies, and it kills me even more that the Democrats are so ineffective that they can’t get that point across to the electorate.  Helps explain why I’m neither!

Better Safe Than Sorry?

There’s a pretty long and important article from the New Yorker about David Addington, Vice-President Cheney’s chief of staff and the purported architect and chief-defender of the Bush administration’s legal strategy in the "war on terrorism."  Reading this piece reminded me of Benjamin Franklin’s famous and oft-quoted statement that "Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both."

The article isn’t important just because it highlights a head henchman in the current regime, but also because it exposes exactly how far past historically established bounds our President has pushed his power.  Most astonishing to me is how quickly these incursions occured because in my mind a lot of what had happened seemed to be incremental over the years since 2001.  That was decidedly not so; the administration moved quickly and aggressively to exert expanded executive powers in 01-02 and most frighteningly did not seem to care whether or not is was legal.  Bush, Cheney and their confidantes seemed to say "it’s legal because we say it is so, no matter what anyone in Congress thinks or for that matter what some of our own lawyers think."

The article was written well before the Supreme Court ruling last week that declared Bush’s military commission system illegal, so it will be interesting to see if this is just the first in a series of events that will reassert the balance of power between the judicial, legislative and executive branches of government or if it’s merely a hickup in the Bush/Cheney march to extreme executive power.

I’ve heard many of the administration’s supporters say that this is a time of war and extraordinary circumstances require the president to assert extraordinary war-time powers.  This quote from Bruce Fein, who as an associate deputy attorney general at the Justice Department during the Reagan Administration I think best refutes that argument:

This President has made claims that are really quite alarming. He’s said that there are no restraints on his ability, as he sees it, to collect intelligence, to open mail, to commit torture, and to use electronic surveillance. If you used the President’s reasoning, you could shut down Congress for leaking too much. His war powers allow him to declare anyone an illegal combatant. All the world’s a battlefield—according to this view, he could kill someone in Lafayette Park if he wants! It’s got the sense of Louis XIV: ‘I am the State.

Scary ain’t it?  Hopefully the Supreme Court ruling signals that the balance of power is truly beginning to be corrected.

Real Estate Business is A-Changin’

Over the last five or so years Celeste and I have been fortunate to be able to sell the houses we were moving out of ourselves and save lots of money in the process.  I suspect that many of our friends and family members thought that we were slightly loony for any/all of the following reasons:

  1. Selling a house is a pain in the butt.  Why would you do that yourself?
  2. Selling a house is risky and why wouldn’t you engage the services of a professional?
  3. You need the marketing muscle of a real estate agent and a listing on the MLS in particular to sell your house.

On point number one I agree that it is a pain in the butt to sell a house, BUT if someone told you you could save anywhere from $10,000 to $20,000 by doing it yourself wouldn’t you think it was worth the effort?

As for point number two you can use a professional to protect yourself and it doesn’t have to cost you a commission.  The professional is a lawyer and you can get one to write or review a contract for you and it shouldn’t cost you much more than $1,000 which is significantly less than the commissions you pay a realtor.

Point number three was a lot more valid 10 years ago, but now with the internet and the burgeoning “For Sale By Owner” community you don’t really need to hire an agent to get the word out that you’re selling.  Add to that the regulatory trouble that the real estate brokers are getting (see this Freakonomics piece for details about the actions against the real estate “cartel”) and what you have is a disappearing advantage for realtors.  And to be honest I think most homeowners can be as effective marketing their homes as the agents they end up overpaying to do it for them.

As I’ve written before, I think realtors can and do provide a valuable service but their real advantage in the future is going to be helping buyers, not sellers and they should be prepared to start charging fixed-fees because the days of 3-6% commissions are fast disappearing.

Bookies at Wimbledon Think a Fix Was In

Color me naive, but I never thought of wagering at Wimbledon as a big deal, especially in the early rounds.  Then I came across this on Freakonomics via AP:

“British media said up to $546,000 of wagers were placed on No. 89 Carlos Berlocq of Argentina to lose the match Tuesday. He lost 6-1, 6-2, 6-2 to Richard Bloomfield, who is ranked 170 places below him and got into the draw as a wild card.”

“London media said the bets on the match were about 30 times more than had been placed on similar British players and foreign opponents.”

I love tennis and think it’s a great game, but as I’ve told many people the sport attracts some true wankers in both the recreational and professional ranks.  Still, if this story is true then Berlocq has redefined the level of wankerism to which tennis players can fall.  I mean if you’re gonna fix a match wouldn’t you make it look at least a little more competitive?  Even boxers cheat better than that.

Our Own Soldier Back in Country

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My brother Dave is back in country from Iraq and he was in town on Wednesday and Thursday night last week.  He was just off of three weeks at Special Forces tryouts, for lack of a better description, and had to report back to Ft. Eustis on Friday morning. To say he was a little wiped-out would be an understatement.

We had a get-together with our grandmother, otherwise known as GG, my Aunt Lynn, Uncle Frank, Aunt Angie my cousin Chris and his significant other Angie and my whole brood.  Everyone was happy to see him and we did our best to help him regain the 15 pounds he lost in the last three weeks.  It was great to see him again.  Here he is with GG:
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